Why the share market is not the same as the economy

26 October, 202219 October, 2022 Updated on19 October, 2022 Economy, Finance

At the beginning of 2022 the Australian economy appeared to be sliding into recession, dragged down by higher interest rates and even higher inflation levels. As a result, it was tempting to believe the share market was also set to tumble.

And while that’s not impossible, the local market traded higher during each of Australia’s last nine recessions, with some of the strongest trading on the Australian share market occurring when the economy was contracting.

For example, 1983 was the best year ever on the Australian share market, climbing 60 per cent higher, while the economy was stuck hard in the 1981-1983 recession. So, while it is tempting to think poor economic times mean a dismal outlook for the market, there are four key reasons why that is usually not the case.

Firstly, the market is driven by expectations.

There is an old saying; investors buy on the rumour and sell on the facts. Big share market falls occur suddenly, well before the economy officially moves into recession, as investors promptly react to bad news.

Once the economy is in recession, investors look to the future and how companies can take advantage of emerging opportunities in an improving economy. Improvements that can take time to show up in economic data.

Secondly, the share market reflects investor sentiment, while consumer concerns and beliefs dominate the economy.

Consumers might cut back on buying clothes or going out in preference to boosting savings when they fear bad times.

In contrast, professional investors are constantly looking for opportunities, and economic downturns where small businesses go bust and consumer sentiment changes, usually create them.

Thirdly, the share market comprises large successful companies.

In contrast, economic statistics are dominated by what is happening to individuals and small businesses. Two groups that can respond very differently to world events.

For example, the war in Ukraine prompted a rise in energy prices, particularly for oil. Most individuals and small businesses responded by cutting back on their petrol consumption, while large oil companies are cranking up production to take advantage of these higher prices.

Finally, the share market has a much smaller universe than the economy.

The market is made up of large companies entirely focused on getting larger and more profitable and, in doing so, attracting more investors to support their efforts.

The economy is made up of Governments, individuals, and small businesses, all making a wide range of decisions about how they will live and operate in an ever-changing world and are basing those decisions on a raft of factors.

So, while the share market and economy are connected, they are influenced by widely different variants that often see them heading in different directions.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Harvesting Financial Success

27 September, 20238 November, 2023 Updated on8 November, 2023 Budgeting, Education, Finance

Spring is the perfect time to rejuvenate your financial habits as well as your garden! Here are 5 ways to set you, and your garden, up for success: 1. Plan your garden: Start with deciding what type of garden you want. In other words, get clear about what goals you want to achieve and by when. Once you have your list of goals prioritise them, so you know where to focus your efforts. Tip: If a goal is large and will take some time to achieve, set yourself some smaller goals with shorter timeframes along the way. 2. Pull out the weeds: You don’t see garden designers on TV rushing in to plant a new garden without getting rid of the weeds first. In financial terms this is the same as eliminating bad debt. Bad debt is debt used to purchase things that don’t go up in value, like cars and household goods. Financing purchases with credit card debt (where the entire balance isn’t paid off each month), personal loans and perhaps ‘buy now, pay later’ facilities mean paying very high interest rates or late fees. Your total cost ends up much more than the original purchase price. These are your weeds – pull them out and don’t let them take hold again! 3. Prepare the soil: A key element to a flourishing garden is good soil. For us this is managing our cashflow. For many people our income is fairly consistent, so the focus is on managing outflows. Think of this as a spending plan not a budget. The ‘B’ word has a strong association with denial and, much like a diet, too much restriction can be counter-productive. Be honest when completing it as you need to know exactly where your cash is going. Your adviser can be a huge help with this. It’s an opportunity to look at your spending and think again about your goals. Is the enjoyment you get from three streaming services more than what you’ll get from achieving your goal? What do you want more? Tip: Ways to reduce spending often require some planning. Taking lunch to work can save a heap of money. Too rushed to do it in the morning? Make something the night before – and remember to take it with you the next day! 4. Plant your garden: This is where things start to take shape! Gardens often start small so think of this as your initial investment which over time becomes larger and larger. In your financial life this is the power of compounding. To help those initial plants fill out your garden quicker you can add other small plants over time. This is known as dollar cost averaging or adding regularly to your initial investment to boost the effect of compounding. 5. Protect from pests: Your garden will appreciate some help to guard against pests and disease. In the same way it’s a good idea for you to protect your biggest asset – your ability to earn income. Income protection and other types of life insurance can protect you against unexpected events and prevent all the hard work you’ve put into your financial garden from unravelling. Success requires commitment because, just like droughts which affect your garden, there will be times when reaching your goal seems hard going. Don’t abandon your dreams! With clear goals, elimination of bad debt, a realistic cashflow plan, disciplined regular saving and protection of your biggest asset, you’ll be harvesting rewards season after season! The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.   

Retirement wrongs that could send you broke!

14 September, 202229 September, 2022 Updated on29 September, 2022 Finance

While retirement should be the best years of your life, many Australians make simple, avoidable mistakes with their finances that can leave them without the funds to really enjoy life. However, with some simple good advice at the start of retirement, these mistakes can usually be avoided, leaving retirees to focus on what is really important and that is, simply enjoying life. Making emotional investment decisions Many people reach retirement age and panic that they don’t have enough money. This then prompts them to make high risk investments in the vague hope of catching up on lost time. Too often their dreams of big profits blind them to risks and many end up losing a chunk, if not all, of their money. All retirement savings are irreplaceable and should be invested with this in mind. Ignoring your portfolio At the other end of the spectrum are retirees who think they have so little saved for retirement that it doesn’t matter what they do with it, in terms of their investments, it won’t make any difference to their lives. This is almost as big a mistake as taking excessive risks. No matter how much money you have saved for retirement, you should be pro-active in making sure these funds are safely invested and providing for you. Miscalculating your retirement funds Many misjudge either the total amount they have to retire on, and/or, the level of income it will generate. This is particularly the case when the decision is made to keep an investment property in retirement. The high value can often give a false sense of financial security, while the actual income generated after all the costs are deducted, can be extremely low. Determine just how much money you have saved for retirement, conservatively judge how much income will be generated from those savings and ensure you don’t spend more than your investments generate. Changing asset allocations to conservative assets, such as cash For many, retirement is the first time they have had to manage or decide how to invest a large amount of money. This can be unnerving at the best of times. Throw in a small market downturn and it is not unusual for people to panic and sell perfectly good investments. This is, of course, the worst option. By panicking and selling investments when the market has taken a step down, losses are locked in and any chance of recovering those funds as the market improves, is lost. Keeping up with the “Joneses” Too often, we’re swept along by what others do. Focus on how you want to live. Think about what will make you happy in retirement and then invest your savings safely so you can focus on enjoying life. For most, the things that make them happiest are free. Time spent with grandchildren, walking barefoot on a beach, or spending time in the garden, all cost very little money and are a fabulous boost to the body, health and mind. If you have any doubts at all about how you should structure your finances, make the decision to get quality advice before you make any of these mistakes. It will be the best investment you make in retirement. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Post Christmas Sales – A Survival Guide

20 December, 202314 December, 2023 Updated on14 December, 2023 Budgeting, Education, Finance

We’ve all experienced it… the undeniable allure of post-Christmas sales. No sooner has Christmas wrapped up for the year than the frenzy of Boxing Day Sales descends upon us. Every store window beckons, and our inboxes overflow with promises of unbeatable discounts. But before you indulge in some festive leftovers and make a beeline for the air-conditioned wonderland of sales, let’s take a moment to pause and ponder… Is that shiny, discounted gadget truly a necessity? Do those new outfits genuinely add value to your wardrobe? Or might there be a wiser way to allocate your hard-earned money? The Allure and Reality of Post-Christmas Sales The holiday season often leaves our wallets feeling lighter than usual. Australia’s festive spending reached an eye-watering $74.5 billion in 2022, marking an 8.6% increase from the previous year, according to the Australian Retailers Association. And Boxing Day? A whopping $1.23 billion was spent in just 24 hours! These figures aren’t just numbers; they paint a picture of our collective weakness for a good holiday sale. But here’s the other side of the coin: while sales can offer genuine bargains, they also come with pitfalls. The risk of accumulating more debt is a very real reality for many shoppers, especially with credit cards already stretched thin from holiday shopping. And let’s face it, impulse purchases can often lead to buyer’s remorse and an overstuffed home. The Merits of Post-Christmas Sales While the post-Christmas sales period often comes with warnings of overspending, it’s not all doom and gloom. When approached with a well-thought-out strategy, these sales can be a great opportunity to secure essential items—be it electronics, clothing, or household goods—at a fraction of their original prices. But how can one truly benefit without falling into the common traps? The key lies in being discerning. With a bit of planning and restraint, the post-Christmas sales can be both enjoyable and economically rewarding. Smart Money Moves Beyond Sales It’s easy to forget about your bigger picture goals when there are neon signs screaming discounts of 50% OFF or more! But remember, every dollar spent is a dollar less saved… or put towards those bigger picture goals. Before you fall prey to the post-Christmas sales, consider these alternatives: Save for a Rainy Day: Life is unpredictable. Having a safety net can make all the difference. Debt Reduction: Free yourself from the burden of debt, by paying down your credit cards and/or any loans you have. Invest: Think stocks, bonds, or other avenues to grow your wealth. (Hello Financial Freedom!) Financial Goals: Would you rather a new outfit? Or to be one step closer to that dream holiday, new car, or first home? Post-Christmas sales can be both a treasure trove and a minefield. The choice is yours. This festive season don’t succumb blindly to the allure of holiday sale discounts. Instead, either purchase your “need to have” items (remember, be discerning here!), or skip the sales completely and opt to put the money towards your financial goals! Here’s to spending wisely, and a financially savvy new year! The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

12 October, 202212 October, 2022 Economy, Finance

As geo-political tensions tighten in Ukraine, economies around the world are reeling from mounting energy prices, soaring costs of living and in a desperate attempt to bring down inflation, higher interest rates. The US economy appears certain to fall into recession. Markets have suddenly become volatile as shares are sold in preference to holding funds in defensive assets such as cash. This in turn is reaping havoc on world currency markets. Funds are flooding into US dollar denominated investments and in doing so, are sending the value of the greenback sky high against other currencies. Speculation is mounting that the British pound may fall to historic lows in coming months and may even reach parity with the US dollar, driven by the newly elected Prime Minister Liz Truss, implementing a big borrowing, low taxing budget. This controversial attempt to boost the British economy comes at a time when central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, are lifting interest rates in order to reduce economic activity and so, dramatically slow the rate of inflation. The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is now forecasting economic growth will slow from 2.8 to 2.2 per cent during the next twelve months as the United States, China and Europe all cut back on economic activity. While Australia is not spared from this global slowdown, with the OECD forecasting domestic growth will tumble from 2.5 to 2 per cent during the coming year, it should survive this turbulent period better than most. Much will depend on this month’s Federal Budget. The first by the newly elected Albanese Government, it will tread a line between its reform agenda including much talk about tax cuts and trying to slow the economy and so reduce inflation. Although the employment rate across the nation remains high, spiralling prices for basic foodstuffs and other essentials is putting enormous pressure on the Government to provide relief to those struggling to get by. In the meantime, petrol prices are set to bounce higher as the Federal Government restores the fuel excise tax, adding 23 cents a litre to both petrol and diesel sold in Australia. In addition, the Reserve Bank has made it clear it will continue to lift the domestic cash rate and with it most other local interest rates, until it has clawed back the rate of inflation from an expected high of 7 per cent, to less than 3 per cent. Higher interest rates are already impacting homebuyers. Five rate rises since May, mean a couple earning $92,000 each, can now borrow $264,000 less than they could in April according to analysis by the research house, Canstar. So even with a 20 per cent deposit, a couple’s maximum budget has dropped from more than $1.63 million to $1.37 million and this in turn is being reflected by prices in the property market. As buyer’s budgets have fallen, so too have property prices. CoreLogic Home Value Index shows house prices in Sydney have dropped by 7.6 per cent this year while Melbourne prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent. With the Reserve Bank determined to force even higher interest rates on the economy in order to defeat inflation, there is no end in sight to higher interest rates and further property price falls. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The Wealth of Gold: Investing in a timeless asset

26 April, 202323 April, 2023 Updated on23 April, 2023 Economy, Investing

As investors navigate through unpredictable and volatile economic times, it is essential to consider asset classes that can provide a level of stability and protection against market fluctuations. One such asset that has stood the test of time is gold. For centuries, gold has been a symbol of wealth and has played an essential role in the global economy. Why Investors Turn to Gold During Volatile Times Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset, as it has maintained its value throughout history. When the stock market experiences downturns or geopolitical tensions escalate, investors often flock to gold as a way to protect their portfolios against market fluctuations. The price of gold typically moves in the opposite direction of the stock market, making it a valuable hedge against economic uncertainty. Moreover, gold is not subject to the same risks as other investments such as bonds or stocks, making it a reliable store of value. Benefits and Consequences of Investing in Gold The primary benefit of investing in gold is its ability to provide a level of diversification to an investment portfolio. By including gold in a portfolio, investors can reduce their exposure to other assets, thus lowering overall risk. Additionally, gold is a tangible asset that investors can physically hold, making it an appealing option for those who prefer assets they can see and touch. However, investing in gold also comes with some drawbacks. The most significant risk associated with investing in gold is its volatility. While gold has maintained its value over time, its price can still fluctuate significantly over shorter periods. Furthermore, investing in gold does not provide a source of income, as it does not pay dividends or interest. Investors looking for regular income streams should consider other investments, such as bonds or stocks that offer dividend payouts. Interesting Facts About Gold Gold has been used as a form of currency for thousands of years. In ancient times, individuals and countries stockpiled gold as a way to preserve their wealth. For instance, during the California Gold Rush in the mid-1800s, the US government established the first national gold reserve to help stabilize the economy. Similarly, during World War II, countries like the US and the UK stockpiled gold to finance their war efforts. Getting Exposure to Gold Investors have several options to get exposure to gold. The most common way is to invest in physical gold, such as gold coins or bars. However, buying physical gold can be expensive, and investors also need to pay for storage and insurance costs. An alternative option is to invest in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which track the price of gold and offer investors an easy way to invest in gold without the hassle of buying physical gold. Finally, investors can also invest in gold mining stocks, which provide exposure to the gold industry and can potentially offer higher returns than investing in physical gold or gold ETFs. While investing in gold can offer protection against market fluctuations and diversify an investment portfolio, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and benefits associated with this asset class. By weighing the pros and cons and assessing how gold aligns with their investment objectives, investors can make informed decisions about whether to include this timeless asset in their investment strategy. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Switch and save

17 October, 20188 September, 2022 Updated on8 September, 2022 Finance

When developing a budget, it’s easy to think that you have no control over costs for essential items such as electricity, particularly when every bill seems to be higher than the last. But if you look closely at your energy usage at home and make a few small changes to reduce your consumption, you will be able to use that extra cash in more enjoyable ways than paying it to an electricity provider. In addition, you are making a valuable contribution to the environment. The following five tips can help put more money in your pocket. Install efficient appliances. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use 80% less energy and can last up to eight times longer than conventional bulbs. Similarly, installing a water-saving showerhead can cut water usage by up to 50% and save on water heating costs. Control the temperature. Set the air-conditioner thermostat at an appropriate level that is optimum for comfort and efficiency. 25°C is the recommended temperature. Wearing appropriate clothing for the climate and installing insulation can reduce the need for additional heating or cooling. Go natural. Using the sun and fresh air to dry your laundry is a free alternative to the clothes dryer. Consult the stars. When purchasing new appliances, check the star or energy rating. The more stars, the greater the energy efficiency, and the more you can save. Turn it off. Turn off appliances if you are no longer using them; even turning off the standby function on electronic equipment will save dollars. A very simple habit is to switch off the light every time you leave a room. There are many more ideas– just look around your home to discover ways you can switch and save. Don’t forget to involve your kids. It will help them to learn about saving money at the same time. And finally, with so many energy companies vying for your business, shop around for the best deal for you. Visit the Australian Government’s website www.energymadeeasy.gov.au/ to compare energy offers. Energy made easy 17/10/2018 This is general information only

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