Economy

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

9 November, 20229 November, 2022 Economy

A sudden uptick in the unemployment rate and slower economic growth combined with continued strong inflationary pressures are set to test the Australian economy during the next two years, according to the Federal Government’s 2022 October Budget.

While record commodity prices and higher Government revenues have provided some relief reducing the annual budget deficit from $78 billion to $36.9 billion, the economic outlook remains uncertain. Government spending will continue to outpace revenue with Canberra doing little to address the long-term structural difficulties contained within the budget, despite trying to restrain spending in order to limit inflationary pressures within the economy.

Perhaps more importantly is the very real possibility that the Australian economy could tip into recession next year with unemployment set to spike at 5.5 per cent while economic growth is expected to slow to just 1.5 per cent. Global political and economic uncertainty cast a long shadow over this budget, with the Government allocating some $1.4 billion in aid to Pacific nations during coming years – one of the few areas of higher Government spending.

Despite keeping a tight hold on outlays, the budget centrepiece is a pledge to build 1 million new houses across the nation during the next five years, in an attempt to alleviate the country’s chronic housing and rental shortages. Nonetheless, households will continue to face their own tough budgetary realities with energy prices tipped to explode by more than 56 per cent in the two years ahead and real wages expected to continue to fall.

Fearful of pushing domestic inflation even higher, the Budget contains no cash relief or direct subsidies for households facing increasing cost of living pressures from higher energy costs, higher fuel prices and higher interest rates.

Medicines will become cheaper with the maximum general co-payment for medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme cut from $42.50 to $30 while an additional 17 million scripts will now receive Government subsidies to reduce their cost to patients.

In the meantime, the Government has left the door open to review the much-debated 2024 income tax cuts, which are focused on providing tax relief for high income earners, particularly wage earners who have been adversely impacted by ‘bracket-creep”.

The former Government’s much talked about commuter car park programs have been axed along with $1.7 billion slashed from various Government regional dams’ projects over the next four years and $4.6 billion over the next twelve years. While the Government has promised to spend $1 billion to create 180,000 additional fee-free TAFE and vocational training places, little has been done to support small business, emerging from two years of pandemic created restrictions and tough trading conditions.

Nonetheless, the whole country will benefit from the Government’s commitment to move to a low carbon economy and its “Rewiring the Nation” program is set to improve energy transmission and connect new renewable energy projects to the nation’s electricity grid. $800 million has been set aside for Powering Australia, which plans to cut taxes on electric vehicles, invest in a national EV charging network and provide solar battery storage for up to 100,000 Australian homes.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

10 January, 202410 January, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

Global growth is forecast to slow and remain below its historical average in 2024, reflective of tighter monetary policy in advanced economies, as well as a soft outlook for China. Australians can expect higher prices, higher interest rates and higher population growth, with economic growth and unemployment decreasing. Inflation continues to bite With a new Governor at the helm of the RBA, and inflation tracking down since its peak in the December quarter 2022, public sentiment hoped that rate rises would be paused. However, the RBA delivered another rate hike at the November 2023 meeting, bringing the official interest rate to 4.35% – the highest level since 2011. It is likely that an increase in the monthly CPI indicator was a key trigger for the RBA to raise rates, as the monthly indicator rose to 5.2 per cent in August, and then rose again to 5.6 per cent in the September data. However, the next monthly data point, for October (which came out after the November rate rise) had inflation decreasing to 4.9 per cent. Services inflation remains high and was the primary driver of stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in the September quarter. Interest rates – will they or won’t they? The RBA continues to be cautious about the inflation outlook for Australia for several reasons: high and sticky inflation in the services market, house prices recovering sooner than anticipated, a tight labour market and increasing population growth due to migration. A survey of 40 economists by the Australian Financial Review shows that the median forecast is that the RBA will start cutting rates in September 2024, whilst the bond market is projecting an easing of rates by mid-2024. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024, reduced from 11, beginning in February – following an independent review ordered by the Treasury. Coupled with the RBA governor’s commitment to return inflation to the target range of 2-3%, more rate hikes may be on the cards. Holiday spending to remain flat A survey by Roy Morgan forecast shoppers to spend $66.8 billion during the pre-Christmas sales period, only up 0.1% from the same period in 2022, likely as a result of cost of living impacts. Sales spending for the Boxing Day period to December 31 was expected to be about $9 billion, including $3 billion on Boxing Day itself, as retailers prepared larger discounts than usual after a slow year. Hot Property House and unit prices grew steadily in 2023, with a national annual growth rate of 5.42% (6.54% in capital cities). The main drivers include the highest net overseas migration levels ever recorded, few vacant properties and stronger demand for established homes due to the construction industry facing capacity and cost issues. This growth forecast is expected to continue as most experts believe demand for housing will continue to outstrip supply. However, Australia’s cost of living increases and interest rate uncertainty will keep biting—leading to weaker price growth than previous years. The rental market remains in a critical shortage of available dwellings according to SQM Research. Due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance, the market is expecting capital city rental increases of 7-10% for 2024, on top of an average 10% market increase in 2023. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

19 January, 202220 April, 2022 Updated on20 April, 2022 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Coronavirus Victoria and New South Wales saw their economies roar back to life as they emerged from lockdown just in time for a new kid to arrive on the coronavirus block. Omicron spread around the world seemingly within days knocking Delta off the front pages. Appearing to cause less severe disease than previous strains, and with Australia achieving high rates of immunisation, state governments held off resorting to lockdowns in an attempt to minimise financial carnage on businesses and workers. All this battling against the virus comes at an enormous cost. The mid-year budget update forecasts annual deficits of around $100 billion for the next few years, no surplus over the next ten years, and gross debt of $1.2 trillion by 2024-2025. Jobs galore The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% in November as an additional 366,100 people joined the ranks of the employed. The under-employment rate fell 2% to 7.5%, and many employers reported difficulties in finding staff. Homebuyer hopes Homebuyers gained a little power over sellers towards the end of the year as a surge in listings saw auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney drop to 66% and 73% respectively. If this extra supply is maintained it should help to cool what has been a very hot property market. COP this The Covid-delayed climate change conference COP26 was finally held in Glasgow, and Australia joined the large number of countries aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Good progress was made in some areas, such as reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and, for some countries, phasing down coal. However, modelling predicts that if all current commitments are fulfilled we will still see temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees. This is well short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees. The Glasgow Climate pact calls on nations to “strengthen their pledges to reduce emissions by the end of 2022.” Expensive energy Major energy users suffered from a big spike in the costs of both coal and natural gas during the quarter. Prices corrected abruptly in November, but still remained much higher than at the start of the year. Oil prices were also higher, nudging US$85 per barrel during October and November. Aside from hitting consumers’ petrol and home energy bills, high energy prices also led to an increase in the cost of, and shortages of urea – a chemical that is critical to the production of fertilizer (and therefore food) and to keeping diesel trucks on the road. Ups and downs The volatility in the value of the Aussie dollar against major currencies continued for the quarter. It traded between 70 US cents and 75 US cents in line with its long-term trend. We gained more than 3.7% against the Euro and Yen, and held ground against the British Pound. The local share market failed to excite, tracking sideways before putting on a small end of year spurt that saw the S&P ASX 200 close the quarter up 1.5%. It was a different story for US stocks. The S&P500 closed out the year at a record high after lifting nearly 11% for the quarter. The Nasdaq was close behind with a 9% gain. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Make this year a financially healthy one

5 January, 20223 February, 2022 Updated on3 February, 2022 Budgeting

Another year is over. Did you achieve everything you’d hoped? Are you better or worse off financially than you were this time last year? With a new year in front of you, what can you do to make the most of every moment? January to March Make a start by turning wishes into goals. Some might be long-term like becoming debt-free, saving a home deposit, or retiring in a few years’ time. What can you do this year to support those goals? Write it all down and give it a name. At the same time, don’t forget living for now. Prepare a month-by-month budget that makes room for the fun times – holidays and celebrations – as well as covering the necessities. Anticipate spikes in your spending. Do your car, home and life insurance premiums all seem to be due at the same time putting pressure on your cash flow? Investigate monthly premium payments or spreading renewal dates across the year. April to June It’s time to prepare for the end of financial year (EOFY). By June 30 you will want to have made any intended additional superannuation contributions (make sure you stay within relevant limits) and finalised donations to your favourite charities. Is there any other tax-deductible expenditure you can bring forward? June is also the month for EOFY sales – an opportunity to grab some bargains on early Christmas shopping and birthday gift purchases. Don’t forget to include these in your budget. July to September If you’re expecting a tax refund for the financial year just finished, lodge your tax return early. What are you going to do with the windfall? Whether you put it toward one of your goals or blow it on a big night out is up to you. Just make sure it’s part of the plan. With your tax return out of the way, the third quarter is a good time to start a bit of financial spring-cleaning. Review your super and savings, insurance and Will, loans and credit cards, Power of Attorney, and overall financial strategy. Is everything up to date? How’s your super doing? Would salary-sacrificing help? Can you consolidate debt or refinance at a lower rate? October to December Into the final quarter and how are you tracking? Are you ‘on plan’? Maybe the plan you came up with back in January wasn’t realistic. It’s not too late to adjust both your strategy and your expectations. If things are looking good, it’s important to stay focused. Christmas is looming with its temptations to over-spend. Once the turkey and plum pudding have settled, it’s time to review the year just gone and to give yourself a pat on the back for what you’ve achieved. Then take a deep breath, check your goals, and update the plan for the coming year. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

24 May, 202318 May, 2023 Updated on18 May, 2023 Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last? Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023. The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years. The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund. At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget. Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

6 steps to a sustainable Christmas

21 December, 202221 December, 2022 Budgeting

Just as the Grinch stole Christmas, excess spending can rob us all of yuletide happiness. Seasonal credit card splurges can create ballooning long term debt, while unnecessary consumption inevitably leads to a blow-out in rubbish bin waste. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates $11 billion is spent on presents each year, including some 20 million unwanted gifts. At the same time, seasonal celebrations boost landfill rubbish by a massive 30 per cent. So, if you want to max out the ho, ho, ho in Christmas this year, think of applying more whoa, whoa, whoa to your spending and consumption ideas. Here are six simple tips Ebenezer Scrooge would be proud of: Ninety per cent of Australians claim to recycle something, sometimes. What better way to do this than to shop for presents in one of Australia’s 2,500 opportunity shops? Forget the old days of chipped crockery and stained used clothing. Op shops are full of trendy, mint condition items and are the perfect place to find something slightly offbeat or unusual for your loved one. Save on postage and reduce needless paper usage by sending clever and original e-Christmas cards. Head online to create your seasonal messages to email to friends and family. Many websites provide free cards, while others offer designer animated versions. Instead of giving a physical gift, give an experience such as tickets to a concert or a voucher to use at a favourite restaurant. Better still, why not gift something special of yourself by offering to cook a meal or provide free babysitting for a family member. Giving an experience rather than a physical gift also means you don’t need to waste precious paper by wrapping the present or spend money on postage getting it to that special someone. If you do give a physical present, think of some clever ways to wrap it, so you’re not adding to the 150,000 km of wrapping paper Australians needlessly use each year – that’s enough paper to circle the equator 4 times. Wrap your gift in a re-usable patterned tea towel or scarf, or better still, invest in some brightly patterned boxes to hold your present that can be recycled from one Christmas to the next. Stop for a moment and look around your home to see what you can re-use and turn into a gift. A great place to start is the garden. Many plants can be easily divided and, in doing so, will create new plants you can pot up in a re-usable pot to give away. Take time to plan your meals this season and, wherever possible, cut down on buying heavily packaged or processed foods. Instead, buy fresh foods that can be eaten without much cooking, re-used as leftovers, or frozen for later consumption. It’s estimated that ninety per cent of Australians discard some 25 per cent of all the food they buy during December – that’s food that has been needlessly produced only to end up in Australia’s landfills. What really matters is remembering how blessed we are to be enjoying the festive season in whatever way we can and being with the people we care about most. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What is money… really?

4 November, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Economy, Finance

That $50 note in your pocket. What’s it worth? “$50,” you say, probably thinking it’s a dumb question. But is it really? Or a sheet of plastic and a bit of ink that likely cost the note printer less than a cent? Your $50 note only has value because the government declares that it does. This lack of intrinsic value means your $50 note, and the balances of bank accounts that represent most money in circulation, might better be described as currency rather than ‘real money’. Over the past few thousand years all sorts of items have been used as currency, from shells and cocoa beans to soap and cigarettes. But to be considered real money, several key criteria need to be met. The most important are that it is: Recognised as a medium of exchange and accepted by most people within an economy. Durable. Portable, having a high value relative to its weight and size. Divisible into smaller amounts. Resistant to counterfeiting. A store of value over long timeframes. Of intrinsic value, i.e. not reliant on anything else for its value. Throughout history gold and silver have come closest to meeting these and other criteria, though nowadays you’ll have difficulty in paying for your groceries with gold Krugerrands. Also, you’ll want to keep your gold and silver in a safe place, and it was people seeking to do just that which gave rise to paper money and our current system of bank-created money. What started out as a good idea… Centuries ago goldsmiths would take in gold and silver for safekeeping and issue the owners receipts, or notes, confirming the amount of gold held. The depositors soon discovered that these notes could be used for payment in place of the physical gold, but the goldsmiths noticed something else. It was rare for anyone to redeem all their notes at once. They saw the opportunity to issue notes as a loan that borrowers paid back over time, with interest. Provided borrowers paid back their loans on time and only a small proportion of owners wanted their gold back at any given time, all was well, and goldsmiths transformed into bankers. But this didn’t always work out. An economic shock might see everyone wanting their gold back, and if the bank couldn’t deliver the full amount that was demanded, it went broke. To help prevent this, many countries created central banks, with some governments even acting as lender-of-last-resort. While government control and the rules around banking have evolved over time, private banks are still the source of most currency created today. When things get real In economically stable times it’s easy to think of currency and real money as the same thing. However, a couple of examples reveal the difference between the two. One is when a government starts printing money to pay for its programs. Inflation usually results, and the value of currency can plummet. In the case of hyperinflation, paper money and bank deposits can quickly become worthless as happened in Germany in the 1920s. The difference between currency and real money and the issue of intrinsic value has implications for other investments. If you would like to learn more, talk to us. We’re here to help. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Similar Posts