Investing: How to reduce concentration risk

Investing: How to reduce concentration risk

Concentration risk. No, it’s nothing to do with thinking too hard about something. In fact, it’s more likely to be a result of not paying enough attention. Concentration risk is the increase in investment risk that comes about from not sufficiently diversifying your portfolio. In other words, too much money is concentrated in too few assets, sectors or geographical markets. This can happen: Intentionally, because you have a strong belief that a particular share or sector, such as resources, banks or property, is likely to outperform in the future. Unintentionally, through asset performance. One or two shares deliver spectacular gains, making the entire portfolio more sensitive to moves in just a couple of assets. Or maybe shares as a whole enjoy a period of strong growth. Even though you hold a large number of different shares, the increased exposure to one asset class increases the risk to your portfolio. Accidentally, through poor asset selection. As at December 2020, nine of the ten top companies that make up the MSCI World Index also appear on the top ten list of the main US index, the S&P 500. Investing in two funds, one that tracks the world market and one that tracks the US market won’t deliver the level of diversification you might expect. Managing your risk The solution to concentration risk is our old friend, diversification. Appreciate the importance of asset allocation, the art of spreading your money across the main asset classes of shares, property, fixed interest and cash. Ensure your asset allocation matches your tolerance to investment risk. Diversify within each asset class. Holding the big four banks is not a diversified share portfolio. If property is your thing, buying four one-bedroom apartments in the same building, or even in the same area, creates a huge concentration risk. Understand each investment and its role in your portfolio. Does share fund A hold similar shares as share fund B? Do they both have the same strategy? Get a professional opinion. Even if you are confident in making your own investment decisions it’s wise to run them by a licensed adviser. It’s surprisingly common for investors to develop an emotional attachment to particular shares or properties they own. Concentration risk can also increase over time due to lack of attention. Your financial planner will assess your portfolio for hidden concentration risk and help you achieve a better balance of investments.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: October-December 2020

Economic Update: October-December 2020

COVID-19 update Finally, some good news on the COVID-19 front: several vaccines have been rolled out in a number of countries. While a huge step forward in bringing the pandemic under control, it comes at a time when, globally, more people are being infected with the coronavirus, and more people are dying from it than at any previous point in the pandemic. There is a long way to go before victory can be declared. Meanwhile, Victoria squashed its second wave of COVID-19 infections, sparking a bounce in its economy as it enjoyed an extended period of no community spread of coronavirus. Unfortunately, the virus found a way back into both Victoria and NSW, kicking off fresh border closures and holiday chaos. The local view As was widely anticipated, the RBA cut the cash rate target by 0.15% to 0.1% in November. While welcomed by borrowers the cut put additional pressure on net savers by making it even harder to find low risk income yielding investments. Some are turning to peer-to-peer lending platforms, or even high yielding shares, which may partly explain the strong recent performance of the ASX. The official unemployment rate in November was 6.8%, the same as in August. However, using a different methodology, Roy Morgan calculated unemployment to be 11.9% in November, with a further 9.1% under-employed. While hardly cause for celebration, this was the first time since the pandemic began that both figures showed a month-on-month drop. The world stage The US election delivered a change of president, with markets responding positively as the result became clear. As the year came to a close, a sigh of relief was heard from millions as the US Congress approved a coronavirus relief package worth $US892 billion ($1.18 trillion). The package includes $US600 payments to most Americans. After years of negotiation and with just days to spare, the UK and EU managed to agree on a BREXIT trade deal. While it will keep the goods flowing between the UK and Europe, the agreement doesn’t cover the huge services sector. The markets It was a good quarter on the markets with the main global and US indices zooming past pre-COVID-19 levels. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 13.4%. The Australian market followed suit, with the S&P/ASX200 rising 13.3%. However, the Aussie market has yet to return to its February high. In the US the S&P500 rose 11% and tech stocks continued to attract buyers with the NASDAQ up 15.5%. The A$ gained strength rising 8.2% against the greenback. While partly due to a weakening of the US$, the A$ was also up 2% against the British Pound, 3.4% against the Euro and 5.6% against the Yen. The outlook Beyond direct health effects much of COVID-19’s economic impacts have been due to fear. It will take many months, but as vaccines are rolled out, and provided they bring the pandemic under control, much of that fear will dissipate. As it does economic activity should pick up strongly. Less likely to see any positive developments in the immediate future is the tense relationship between Australia and China. Australian coal miners, winemakers and barley growers will continue to bear the brunt of the dispute. Fortunately, China is still highly dependent on Australian iron ore, the price of which has soared by 78% since the start of the year. For current market conditions and further economic analysis, contact our financial advisers. We’re here to help!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Market crashes: The good, the bad and the ugly

Market crashes: The good, the bad and the ugly

Just as night follows day, it seems part of the regular cycle of the world’s share markets that market crashes and falling prices follow good times and rising prices. The impact of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic has been typical of such downturns, prompting a 35 per cent sell off in world share markets and a dramatic fall in economic activity. For many, it has prompted memories of other equally, and sometimes more devastating, downturns in the world’s share markets. The most famous was “Black Thursday” in 1929, which led to an 80 per cent collapse in share prices and sparked the Great Depression, lasting for more than 10 years. What caused it? The wild excesses of the roaring twenties when consumer confidence was at a record high and the introduction of margin loans, where people could borrow up to 80 per cent of the value of shares. This created a classic investment bubble, where optimism overwhelmed caution, and people started buying shares with the mistaken belief they would always increase in value. A drop in agricultural production due to droughts and a fall in economic production caused a sudden reversal in sentiment. A similar situation occurred 60 years later in 1987 where panic selling on Black Monday wiped approximately 30 per cent from the value of the key US market index, the Dow Jones – its biggest one-day fall. It put an end to the ‘Greed is Good’ mentality of the eighties and prompted a review of the relatively new, computerised share trading systems. Yet it seems investor’s memories are short. Not long after this, markets got caught up with a new investment bubble prompted by the development and growth of the Internet. Companies raced to find their place online, and suddenly, all Internet companies were considered a sure bet. This speculative buying ran out of steam when the Dot Com Bubble finally burst in 2000, wiping 45 per cent off the value of shares. Whilst sharing commonalities with previous crashes, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, was also in many ways unique. It was the direct result of dodgy lending practices in the US housing market, which created a toxic class of home loans, commonly referred to as sub-prime loans. Typically, these lenders ignored the individual’s ability to repay the loans and instead focused on the belief property prices would continue to rise, and there would always be people prepared to rent these properties. It created a typical investment bubble in the US housing market. Eventually, people found they could not meet their repayments, nor could they sell the properties held as securities. Causing enormous problems within the US banking system and the collapse of several international banks. The lesson to be learnt from all these devastating crashes is that while no two were the same, they were all similar in nature. All were created by exaggerated investor beliefs that prices would never fall. Therefore, it is essential to think carefully before investing, ensuring each investment is made with a long-term mindset, and that sudden market corrections do not lead to panic selling. As history has shown, market downturns follow upturns, but as long as the investment is fundamentally sound, it will fully recover any lost value. Contact us today for sound investment and financial advice to withstand market volatility.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

COVID-19 Economic Update

COVID-19 Economic Update

During the last quarter one story has dominated the news – COVID-19. By the end of June at least 10 million people had contracted the disease, and over 500,000 had died. With 8,000 cases and 104 deaths, Australia was amongst the countries that have been most successful in limiting its spread. However, this success came with a major cost. By June, 800,000 fewer people were on the nation’s payrolls than at the start of the pandemic. The travel, hospitality and entertainment sectors were particularly hard-hit. One consequence of this major loss of employment is that many people took advantage of the ability to withdraw up to $10,000 from their superannuation prior to the end of June. As of mid-June, over 2.3 million people had applied, with nearly $16 billion worth of withdrawals processed. A further $10,000 can be withdrawn in the new financial year. While this will prove a real lifeline for the many people who need the money now, those who do withdraw the maximum amounts are likely to be tens of thousands of dollars worse off in retirement, with younger people facing the biggest losses. Key numbers Perhaps surprisingly, investment markets took an optimistic view of the long-term financial consequences of COVID-19. While not returning to its record highs, the S&P ASX200 index rose 16% over the quarter, a little behind the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index (up 18.7%) and the US S&P500 (up 18%). However, the real action was on the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which lifted 30.6% over the three months to set a new high. The RBA cash rate stayed at 0.25%, with no great expectations of a change anytime soon. The Aussie dollar rose steadily, increasing from 61.7 to 69.1 US cents from the end of March until end of June. It enjoyed similar gains against the British Pound and Japanese Yen, and a slightly smaller gain against the Euro. While there are many factors that influence the value of the dollar, this last quarter saw it closely following the fortunes of one of our major export commodities – iron ore. What next? COVID-19 is likely to remain the dominant story for some time yet. Following the initial lockdown, countries around the world, Australia included, are conducting something of an experiment in trying to ease restrictions without triggering ‘second waves’ or other outbreaks. Events in Victoria have shown how challenging this can be, but successfully lifting lockdowns is a critical step towards restoring anything resembling normal economic activity. Another challenge facing the federal government is how to continue to support the millions of people on the JobKeeper allowance and the JobSeeker supplement. With these programs due to end in September, there is concern that their sudden cessation will deliver another blow to the economy.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Investing 101

Investing 101

Whether it’s taking a more active interest in our superannuation, starting to build an investment portfolio, or even trying our hands at playing the stock market, we can all benefit by understanding the language and key concepts of investing.   Asset classes There is a huge range of potential investments out there, and these can be grouped together in asset classes that are based on shared characteristics. There are many asset classes, however the major ones that most mainstream investors focus on are shares, property, fixed interest and cash.   Shares give investors part ownership in specific companies. The share market sets the value of each share and prices can fluctuate significantly, even from day to day. This price volatility means that, relative to other asset classes, shares are higher risk, particularly in the short term. However, investors expect to be rewarded for taking on this risk by the potential for shares to deliver higher long-term gains than the other asset classes. Property also provides investors with full or partial ownership of growth assets. Income is received in the form of rent, and property can also provide capital growth. As property can, at times, fall in value, it is considered a medium to high-risk asset class. Fixed interest refers to investment in government or corporate bonds. Bonds are a type of loan, and each bond has a maturity date (the date the loan is repaid), a maturity value (the amount returned at the maturity date), a coupon rate and a market value. The coupon rate is fixed for the life of the bond (hence the term ‘fixed interest’), but the market value can fluctuate depending on movements in interest rates. Cash covers bank accounts and term deposits. Returns are in the form of interest payments, and cash is generally considered to be a low risk asset class. Why are asset classes important? One of the golden rules of investment is that when seeking higher returns, investors must take on a greater degree of risk. Quality fixed interest investments provide a high certainty of a particular return. They are low risk, and the returns they offer reflect this. However, for any given share, we don’t know what its price will be in a week, a month or a year. Prices may be volatile, the return is uncertain, so a share is a higher risk investment. However, that risk can be a positive thing – upside risk – which is the potential for the share to generate a higher than expected return.   Asset classes bundle together investments with similar risk and return profiles. By blending these asset classes together in different proportions – a process called asset allocation – investors can construct portfolios that provide levels of risk and return that suit specific needs.   This blending of different asset classes results in diversification, which is a critical risk management tool. As different asset classes over and under perform at different times, mixing different asset classes lowers the volatility, and hence the risk, of a portfolio.   As far as returns are concerned, studies have shown that over 90% of a portfolio’s performance is determined by the asset allocation. It’s vastly more important than individual investment selection or the timing of purchases and sales.   Help is at hand Of course, there’s more to investing than can be conveyed in a short article, but that’s no reason to delay putting the various markets to work. Speak to us today and we can help you understand your risk comfort level and design an investment strategy that’s right for you.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Shares are more than numbers

Shares are more than numbers

[fsn_row][fsn_column width=”12″][fsn_text] Whether it’s by direct purchase, via a managed fund or through superannuation, most Australians hold some form of share investment. Many of us are aware that if the numbers in the finance report on the evening news are mostly green that’s good and if they’re red that’s bad, but beyond that we give little thought to what shares are and why we should take an interest in them.   What’s a share? When you buy shares, you aren’t just buying a piece of paper or a digital entry on an electronic register. You are actually buying a physical part of a company. It might be a tiny fraction of the total value, but it still provides you with certain rights and responsibilities, including the opportunity to participate in the direction of the company. Shares are real assets and depending on the size and stability of the company, you can even borrow against them.   The benefits For most people, the most important aspect to share ownership is being able to share in the profits and growth of the company. For ordinary shares, a portion of the profit is usually paid out via twice-yearly dividends. Some profits may be retained to fund the growth of the company, and this should be reflected in an increase in share price over time. These capital gains can be realised by selling the shares. The downside is that, if the company does poorly, investors may see a fall in the value of their shares.   Getting involved Beyond receiving dividends and (hopefully) watching the share price increase, many investors take little interest in their shares. But shareholders also enjoy the right to have a say in the running of the business, by voting for or against the appointment of specific directors and on resolutions at the Annual General Meeting. One share equals one vote, so large institutional investors such as superannuation funds usually have the greatest say, but even small investors can turn up at the AGM and potentially ask questions of the board. And groups of shareholders may get together to influence a company’s direction on a range of business or governance issues.   Buying shares in up and coming companies is also a way of putting one’s money where one’s values and interests are, for example in renewable energy, recycling, medical technologies, batteries or emerging markets.   The rewards of investing in shares can be enormous, and they’re not just financial. There’s real pride to be gained from looking at a company that has achieved great things and to know that you’ve played a part in its success.   However, there is a financial risk associated with owning shares, so if you want to treat your share portfolio as more than just numbers on a screen, speak to us.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. [/fsn_text][/fsn_column][/fsn_row]

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