Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

Economy, Finance

As geo-political tensions tighten in Ukraine, economies around the world are reeling from mounting energy prices, soaring costs of living and in a desperate attempt to bring down inflation, higher interest rates.  The US economy appears certain to fall into recession. Markets have suddenly become volatile as shares are sold in preference to holding funds in defensive assets such as cash. This in turn is reaping havoc on world currency markets. Funds are flooding into US dollar denominated investments and in doing so, are sending the value of the greenback sky high against other currencies.  Speculation is mounting that the British pound may fall to historic lows in coming months and may even reach parity with the US dollar, driven by the newly elected Prime Minister Liz Truss, implementing a big borrowing, low taxing budget. This controversial attempt to boost the British economy comes at a time when central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, are lifting interest rates in order to reduce economic activity and so, dramatically slow the rate of inflation.  The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is now forecasting economic growth will slow from 2.8 to 2.2 per cent during the next twelve months as the United States, China and Europe all cut back on economic activity.  While Australia is not spared from this global slowdown, with the OECD forecasting domestic growth will tumble from 2.5 to 2 per cent during the coming year, it should survive this turbulent period better than most. Much will depend on this month’s Federal Budget. The first by the newly elected Albanese Government, it will tread a line between its reform agenda including much talk about tax cuts and trying to slow the economy and so reduce inflation.  Although the employment rate across the nation remains high, spiralling prices for basic foodstuffs and other essentials is putting enormous pressure on the Government to provide relief to those struggling to get by. In the meantime, petrol prices are set to bounce higher as the Federal Government restores the fuel excise tax, adding 23 cents a litre to both petrol and diesel sold in Australia.  In addition, the Reserve Bank has made it clear it will continue to lift the domestic cash rate and with it most other local interest rates, until it has clawed back the rate of inflation from an expected high of 7 per cent, to less than 3 per cent.  Higher interest rates are already impacting homebuyers. Five rate rises since May, mean a couple earning $92,000 each, can now borrow $264,000 less than they could in April according to analysis by the research house, Canstar. So even with a 20 per cent deposit, a couple’s maximum budget has dropped from more than $1.63 million to $1.37 million and this in turn is being reflected by prices in the property market. As buyer’s budgets have fallen, so too have property prices. CoreLogic Home Value Index shows house prices in Sydney have dropped by 7.6 per cent this year while Melbourne prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent.  With the Reserve Bank determined to force even higher interest rates on the economy in order to defeat inflation, there is no end in sight to higher interest rates and further property price falls.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Retirement wrongs that could send you broke!

Retirement wrongs that could send you broke!

Updated on Finance

While retirement should be the best years of your life, many Australians make simple, avoidable mistakes with their finances that can leave them without the funds to really enjoy life. However, with some simple good advice at the start of retirement, these mistakes can usually be avoided, leaving retirees to focus on what is really important and that is, simply enjoying life. Making emotional investment decisions Many people reach retirement age and panic that they don’t have enough money. This then prompts them to make high risk investments in the vague hope of catching up on lost time. Too often their dreams of big profits blind them to risks and many end up losing a chunk, if not all, of their money. All retirement savings are irreplaceable and should be invested with this in mind. Ignoring your portfolio At the other end of the spectrum are retirees who think they have so little saved for retirement that it doesn’t matter what they do with it, in terms of their investments, it won’t make any difference to their lives. This is almost as big a mistake as taking excessive risks. No matter how much money you have saved for retirement, you should be pro-active in making sure these funds are safely invested and providing for you. Miscalculating your retirement funds Many misjudge either the total amount they have to retire on, and/or, the level of income it will generate. This is particularly the case when the decision is made to keep an investment property in retirement. The high value can often give a false sense of financial security, while the actual income generated after all the costs are deducted, can be extremely low. Determine just how much money you have saved for retirement, conservatively judge how much income will be generated from those savings and ensure you don’t spend more than your investments generate. Changing asset allocations to conservative assets, such as cash For many, retirement is the first time they have had to manage or decide how to invest a large amount of money. This can be unnerving at the best of times. Throw in a small market downturn and it is not unusual for people to panic and sell perfectly good investments. This is, of course, the worst option. By panicking and selling investments when the market has taken a step down, losses are locked in and any chance of recovering those funds as the market improves, is lost. Keeping up with the “Joneses” Too often, we’re swept along by what others do. Focus on how you want to live. Think about what will make you happy in retirement and then invest your savings safely so you can focus on enjoying life. For most, the things that make them happiest are free. Time spent with grandchildren, walking barefoot on a beach, or spending time in the garden, all cost very little money and are a fabulous boost to the body, health and mind. If you have any doubts at all about how you should structure your finances, make the decision to get quality advice before you make any of these mistakes. It will be the best investment you make in retirement. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What does it take to become a millionaire?

What does it take to become a millionaire?

Updated on Budgeting, Investing

There are three key components to a successful savings strategy. The first is some surplus cash; an amount of money you can regularly set aside in your quest to become a millionaire. Second, an investment return. This can be in the form of share dividends, interest income, rent from properties or a mix. You won’t be withdrawing any of these returns from your investment portfolio; you’ll reinvest the income so that you earn interest on your interest on your interest. This so called compounding of investment returns, when combined with the next ingredient, is what will really drive your growing wealth. That final ingredient? Time. So what might your path to millionaire status look like? Let’s say you’re in your 20s and you’re prepared to wait 40 years to achieve your goal. Plug the relevant numbers into the savings goals calculator at moneysmart.gov.au and it will tell you that, at an interest rate of 10% pa and starting with a $0 balance, you’ll need to save just $157 per month to hit your target, or around a cup of barista-brewed coffee a day. Your total contribution will be $75,360. The other $924,640 is from your investment returns. No wonder that some people view compounding returns as a form of magic. The benefits of starting early can’t be stressed enough. If you only have 20 years to devote to your get-rich plan, you’ll need to save $1,306 per month. If you can afford that you’ll still be a millionaire, but $313,440 of the total will be your hard-earned money. A real return Of course, a million dollars in 40 years time won’t have the same buying power as a million bucks today. You’ll also likely pay tax on at least some of your investment income and incur some investment management fees. After accounting for inflation, tax and fees, let’s say your real rate of return is 6% pa. This lifts the price of a ticket to the real millionaires club to $500 per month over 40 years. Going for growth With your timeframe and contribution rate settled you’ll need to design an investment portfolio that is likely to deliver your required return without taking on undue risk. With a long investment horizon, and particularly in periods of low interest rates, it’s appropriate to look to growth assets such as shares and property to provide the foundation of your portfolio. And don’t be daunted every time investment markets take a bit of a tumble. Instead see them as opportunities to pick up some bargains. A helping hand To make sure you make the most of your savings, understand investment issues and utilise the best tax structure talk to your financial adviser.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

When was the last time you paid cash?

When was the last time you paid cash?

Updated on Budgeting, Education

Prior to COVID, we were steadily moving towards a cashless world. Post 2020, even the most resilient of us has made the leap to tap-and-go payments sooner than we expected. From the morning coffee to filling up the petrol tank, we wave that plastic with little thought to the impact on our account balances. In fairness to us, many retailers are now adopting the ‘no-cash please’ trading regime, but we Australians have a reputation for embracing technology and touchless shopping is no exception. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Australian household debt is currently sitting at around 210% of net disposable income. That places us fifth in the world, behind Denmark (257%), Norway (240%), Netherlands (236%) and Switzerland (223%). Compared with countries with spending habits similar to our own – the USA with (105%) and the UK (142%) – we’re quite high. If your debt level is pushing northwards of your preferred limit, here are a few ideas for getting, and staying, on track: – Pay your full card balance off every monthSure, it’s an oldie but a goodie. You know what you need to do; if your current balance is too high, pay more than the minimum amount. The first step in breaking the credit cycle is to get off it, which leads into our next point: – Create a realistic budgetThis will identify where your money is going and how much extra you can pay off your credit cards. The government’s Moneysmart website has a free budget planner to help you. Alternatively, chat with your financial planner and work with them to develop a payment strategy to get your debts under control, and stay that way. – Keep your tap-and-go receipts and reconcile them against your account each weekThis is one of the best ways to see exactly how much you’re shelling out, and on what. You’ll identify areas of unnecessary spending, and you’ll spot any errors or dodgy transactions. – Instead of a credit card for your touchless transactions, consider using a pre-paid cardAvailable from banks and other financial institutions – even Australia Post offers one – you load it with your own money and use it for in-person or online shopping. It’s just like a credit card but without the risk of getting into debt. – Consider your subscriptionsYou know, streaming services, magazines and memberships, etc. Many renew automatically and the first you’ll know about it is an unexpected – often expensive – transaction on your card. Do a stocktake to see what subscriptions you have and decide if you really need them. For those you no longer need, change your subscription settings so they don’t automatically renew. Don’t worry, they’ll alert you when the renewal is due in case you change your mind! We’re definitely living in an interesting time. Our lives have altered in ways we’d never have imagined and we Australians, in our typical way, are adapting to these ‘new-norms’. This is a good thing, just as long as we stay in control!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What will you do with your tax refund?

What will you do with your tax refund?

Updated on Tax

Thousands of Australians receive tax refunds every year. Some refunds won’t even cover the cost of a pizza to celebrate, however many are quite substantial. If you’re one of the lucky ones, what will you do with your tax windfall? If you go out and spend it, all you’re doing is giving part of it back to the government in the form of GST. Sure, it’s nice to splurge once in a while but there are other places you can stash your cash and reap a longer term benefit. Consider these options: a) Superannuation contributions Your superannuation fund will surpass any other investment vehicle simply due to the law of compounding… and your contributions are taxed at only 15%. Whilst superannuation funds remain the most tax-effective haven and thus the best way to grow your investments, the downside is that once your money is contributed it’s usually not accessible until you retire. b) Regular investment plan Consider investing the lump sum and setting up a regular savings investment plan to build it up. This will help you meet future objectives such as a new home, education or new car. While a certain amount of money in the bank is helpful for emergencies, now could be the time to consider a longer term plan with assets such as property or shares. You can invest in a managed fund with an initial deposit of $1,000 and make monthly contributions. While such investments are subject to fluctuations in value, you will see them grow over time. c) Reduce your mortgage By paying it straight into your mortgage, you immediately acquire more equity in your home and reduce the interest. Having more equity in your home also means that you can re-borrow that money again for investment, gearing, or to purchase other assets. So that’s an option that could keep on working for you. The moral of this story is to have a plan and then apply it. Work out where your tax refund will work best for you then talk your decisions through with your licensed financial planner.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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