Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Economy, Investing

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to pause its cycle of interest rate hikes, keeping the cash rate target unchanged at 3.6 percent due to softening inflation data, a flat unemployment rate, and the need to assess the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy. The Consumer Price Index slowed from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent for the year to February with prices increasing by just 0.2 per cent for the month of February itself, raising hopes the Reserve Bank might halt any further interest rate increases. Economists though remain divided on the outlook for interest rates. Some point to the low inflation rate recorded for the month of February and say the back has been broken regarding the recent price hikes of the past year. That any further rate rises will risk tipping the domestic economy into recession with local activity already stalling in key industries such as the housing construction industry, local tourism and other recreational industries. Some economists though point to the fact inflation remains doggedly above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation range of between 2 and 3 per cent and that consumer spending remains doggedly high despite recent rate hikes. Recession fears are also growing, given the ACTU’s push this year for a 7 per cent increase in the minimum wage from $21.38 an hour to $22.88, taking the minimum wage to $45,337 a year for some 2.4 million workers – a pay rise of some $3,000 a year. This comes hard on the heels of last year’s minimum wage rise of 5.2 per cent. More, the ACTU is pushing for this increase to flow to a range of other award rates, prompting concerns any such move could spark a wage rise – price hike spiral, reminiscent of the 1970’s. However, the ACTU argues the cost-of-living pressures are now so high that this increase is needed just to stop workers falling in poverty. That low-income workers typically spend every cent they earn, and this is exactly what is needed to keep the local economy growing. It also points to continued record high levels of corporate profits in recent years and argues Australian employers can easily afford to pay their workers more without it placing further pressure on prices. Not surprisingly business groups point to Australia’s low level of productivity gains, another increase in the Employers Superannuation Guarantee contribution, to which is set to rise to 11 per cent next financial year and higher funding costs, to argue against any pay increases. Meanwhile, the Federal Government is set to release its first full year budget this quarter. The overriding concern is whether the Government will take this opportunity to deal with the significant structural funding issues within the budget and so start to haul in the Federal deficit. While Government revenues continued to be bolstered by strong international trading conditions for Australia’s key exports of iron ore, coal and wheat, it remains a simple fact that the Federal Government spends more on goods and services than it receives by way of taxes. This situation will only be made worse by the recent decision to acquire a new fleet of state-of-the-art submarines and other military equipment that is expected to add billions of dollars to Government spending over the next few decades. All at a time, when the Government is equally committed to spending billions helping the domestic economy transition away from fossil fuel energy sources and embark on building a new low carbon economy. Meanwhile, a growing number of economists believe the US economy will most certainly fall into recession sometime this year, as its central bank also deals with a blow-out in domestic inflation by increasing local interest rates. While US employment figures remain strong, the recent US rate hikes have put undue pressure on a number of US and international banks, causing the collapse of two high profile banks in recent months. Although the US banking system remains strong, there are fears that these failures will cause a retraction in lending to businesses and so will further increase the likelihood and depth of any pending recession.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Updated on Economy, Investing

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, domestic headline inflation is expected to reach 8% in the final month of 2022 as consumers continue to spend despite higher interest rates. Retail spending saw a significant increase of 6.4% during November, with Black Friday sales pushing the number even higher at 8% during the last week of the month. The surge in spending during this time is relatively new in Australia, with the event being similar to the Black Friday sales that occurred in 2021 but lower than the two previous years. This suggests that the trend may be a short-lived fad in the country. Low unemployment levels and expectations of continued labour shortages throughout the economy appear to be creating newfound confidence among consumers, despite continued increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank appears determine to halt further price rises by pushing interest rates even higher through 2023, which will inevitably flow through to higher home loan rates and further falls in property prices. This is despite its own figures suggesting that if cash rates reach 3.6 per cent next year, some 15 per cent of Australian homebuyers will be experiencing negative cash flow, where their mortgage repayments exceed their net earnings. Few analysts though are expecting widespread defaults, pointing to the build-up of large financial buffers through the pandemic, continued strong labour markets and earlier house price gains, all acting to help homeowners get through the coming year. Nonetheless, the expectation is for further downward pressure on property prices through 2023, with most analysts predicting a 15 to 20 per cent fall in national house prices from peak to trough with impaired or unrenovated properties experiencing even greater price falls. Company profits are expected to remain strong through 2023, driven mostly by strong export prices, despite efforts to speed up the decarbonisation of the economy and move to more renewable sources of energy creation. Industries are expected to benefit from embracing public-private partnerships with the newly elected Federal Government in policy priority areas such as energy, defence, education, health, and security. The continued strength of the domestic labour market and the strong international demand for Australia’s mining exports should also protect the domestic economy from the cold winds that are currently blowing through the international economy. The United States economy, typically the powerhouse of the world economy, is almost certainly expected to fall into recession later in 2023, with domestic economic growth there expected to fall to a lacklustre 0.5 to 1 per cent for the calendar year of 2023. The Chinese economy is still held moribund by the continuing impact of the pandemic with reported cases of Covid 19 soaring as winter takes its grip on the country, causing factory shutdowns and with that, a fall in exports. In the United Kingdom, inflation peaked at 11.8 per cent in October 2022 and is expected to remain in double digits for some time as higher energy prices, interest rates and general cost of living increases cause widespread price hikes around that nation. While the Bank of England is doing its best to bring inflation under control, there is widespread resentment that it is the poorest and most vulnerable in the community that are paying the highest price for the nation’s economic woes. A situation made worse by the slowdown in economic activity in Europe generally, as the ongoing war in the Ukraine continues to take its toll, driving energy prices higher and causing massive economic dislocation.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Why the share market is not the same as the economy

Why the share market is not the same as the economy

Updated on Economy, Finance

At the beginning of 2022 the Australian economy appeared to be sliding into recession, dragged down by higher interest rates and even higher inflation levels. As a result, it was tempting to believe the share market was also set to tumble. And while that’s not impossible, the local market traded higher during each of Australia’s last nine recessions, with some of the strongest trading on the Australian share market occurring when the economy was contracting. For example, 1983 was the best year ever on the Australian share market, climbing 60 per cent higher, while the economy was stuck hard in the 1981-1983 recession. So, while it is tempting to think poor economic times mean a dismal outlook for the market, there are four key reasons why that is usually not the case. Firstly, the market is driven by expectations. There is an old saying; investors buy on the rumour and sell on the facts. Big share market falls occur suddenly, well before the economy officially moves into recession, as investors promptly react to bad news. Once the economy is in recession, investors look to the future and how companies can take advantage of emerging opportunities in an improving economy. Improvements that can take time to show up in economic data. Secondly, the share market reflects investor sentiment, while consumer concerns and beliefs dominate the economy. Consumers might cut back on buying clothes or going out in preference to boosting savings when they fear bad times. In contrast, professional investors are constantly looking for opportunities, and economic downturns where small businesses go bust and consumer sentiment changes, usually create them. Thirdly, the share market comprises large successful companies. In contrast, economic statistics are dominated by what is happening to individuals and small businesses. Two groups that can respond very differently to world events. For example, the war in Ukraine prompted a rise in energy prices, particularly for oil. Most individuals and small businesses responded by cutting back on their petrol consumption, while large oil companies are cranking up production to take advantage of these higher prices. Finally, the share market has a much smaller universe than the economy. The market is made up of large companies entirely focused on getting larger and more profitable and, in doing so, attracting more investors to support their efforts. The economy is made up of Governments, individuals, and small businesses, all making a wide range of decisions about how they will live and operate in an ever-changing world and are basing those decisions on a raft of factors. So, while the share market and economy are connected, they are influenced by widely different variants that often see them heading in different directions.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

The female investor

The female investor

Updated on Investing

Investment and portfolio building has traditionally been a male-dominated world, but these days more women are trading on the market – and they’re good at it! According to an ASX Australian Investor Study completed in 2020, female investors make up 42% of Australian investors, yet 45% of those only began investing in the year prior to 2020. It’s intriguing that younger women – known as Next Generation Investors aged 18 – 25 – are taking up stock portfolios. Their goals include saving for a holiday (50%) or paying down existing debt (34%). The ASX study highlighted a few other interesting points: Women prefer products more commonly understood, such as direct Australian shares (53%), residential investment property (37%) and term deposits (31%). Women are less concerned than men about low interest rates and market fluctuations, but consider issues like whom to trust, hidden fees and liquidity. While men are more accepting of market volatility, women prefer stable or guaranteed investment returns. While we’re about breaking down stereotypes, the study found that women are generally more successful in their investments than men. This could be because women are cautious by nature, taking longer to research investment choices and, once settled, preferring to ride out market ups and downs. Conversely, men tend to regularly review their portfolios and trade aggressively, buying and selling assets, potentially incurring additional fees and losses due to market swings. In recent times there has been a surge in Australian women backing other Australian women in start-up business ventures. According to SmartCompany.com.au, female venture capitalists are recognising that entrepreneurial women face a specific set of challenges, such as a lack of networking and mentoring opportunities, and lingering perceptions around gender-based work/family roles. Further, support for Indigenous businesswomen is increasing as women’s investment networks strive to encourage women from diverse backgrounds. Fact is, almost 40% of Australian women who are single for reasons of divorce, widowhood or otherwise, will retire in poverty. Issues around the gender pay gap are recognised contributors to women generally having less money in savings and/or superannuation: women save an average of $598 per month compared with men $839. In an effort to improve these figures, many women strive to secure their financial futures through self-education: magazines, blogs, podcasts etc. Others seek professional advice through referral from a trusted friend or relative. The financial planning industry recognises that more women are actively investing. Financial advisers are developing strategies specific to women’s needs and goals – in fact, the industry is well-served by a large number of financial professionals who are women. The Financial Planning Association of Australia (FPA) can put you in touch with a qualified professional adviser, just like us, so you can ensure all your decisions are well-informed and that your personal needs and goals are considered.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Coronavirus Victoria and New South Wales saw their economies roar back to life as they emerged from lockdown just in time for a new kid to arrive on the coronavirus block. Omicron spread around the world seemingly within days knocking Delta off the front pages. Appearing to cause less severe disease than previous strains, and with Australia achieving high rates of immunisation, state governments held off resorting to lockdowns in an attempt to minimise financial carnage on businesses and workers.  All this battling against the virus comes at an enormous cost. The mid-year budget update forecasts annual deficits of around $100 billion for the next few years, no surplus over the next ten years, and gross debt of $1.2 trillion by 2024-2025. Jobs galore The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% in November as an additional 366,100 people joined the ranks of the employed. The under-employment rate fell 2% to 7.5%, and many employers reported difficulties in finding staff. Homebuyer hopes Homebuyers gained a little power over sellers towards the end of the year as a surge in listings saw auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney drop to 66% and 73% respectively. If this extra supply is maintained it should help to cool what has been a very hot property market. COP this The Covid-delayed climate change conference COP26 was finally held in Glasgow, and Australia joined the large number of countries aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Good progress was made in some areas, such as reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and, for some countries, phasing down coal. However, modelling predicts that if all current commitments are fulfilled we will still see temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees. This is well short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees. The Glasgow Climate pact calls on nations to “strengthen their pledges to reduce emissions by the end of 2022.” Expensive energy Major energy users suffered from a big spike in the costs of both coal and natural gas during the quarter. Prices corrected abruptly in November, but still remained much higher than at the start of the year. Oil prices were also higher, nudging US$85 per barrel during October and November. Aside from hitting consumers’ petrol and home energy bills, high energy prices also led to an increase in the cost of, and shortages of urea – a chemical that is critical to the production of fertilizer (and therefore food) and to keeping diesel trucks on the road. Ups and downs The volatility in the value of the Aussie dollar against major currencies continued for the quarter. It traded between 70 US cents and 75 US cents in line with its long-term trend. We gained more than 3.7% against the Euro and Yen, and held ground against the British Pound. The local share market failed to excite, tracking sideways before putting on a small end of year spurt that saw the S&P ASX 200 close the quarter up 1.5%. It was a different story for US stocks. The S&P500 closed out the year at a record high after lifting nearly 11% for the quarter. The Nasdaq was close behind with a 9% gain.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Investing: How to reduce concentration risk

Investing: How to reduce concentration risk

Investing

Concentration risk. No, it’s nothing to do with thinking too hard about something. In fact, it’s more likely to be a result of not paying enough attention. Concentration risk is the increase in investment risk that comes about from not sufficiently diversifying your portfolio. In other words, too much money is concentrated in too few assets, sectors or geographical markets. This can happen: Intentionally, because you have a strong belief that a particular share or sector, such as resources, banks or property, is likely to outperform in the future. Unintentionally, through asset performance. One or two shares deliver spectacular gains, making the entire portfolio more sensitive to moves in just a couple of assets. Or maybe shares as a whole enjoy a period of strong growth. Even though you hold a large number of different shares, the increased exposure to one asset class increases the risk to your portfolio. Accidentally, through poor asset selection. As at December 2020, nine of the ten top companies that make up the MSCI World Index also appear on the top ten list of the main US index, the S&P 500. Investing in two funds, one that tracks the world market and one that tracks the US market won’t deliver the level of diversification you might expect. Managing your risk The solution to concentration risk is our old friend, diversification. Appreciate the importance of asset allocation, the art of spreading your money across the main asset classes of shares, property, fixed interest and cash. Ensure your asset allocation matches your tolerance to investment risk. Diversify within each asset class. Holding the big four banks is not a diversified share portfolio. If property is your thing, buying four one-bedroom apartments in the same building, or even in the same area, creates a huge concentration risk. Understand each investment and its role in your portfolio. Does share fund A hold similar shares as share fund B? Do they both have the same strategy? Get a professional opinion. Even if you are confident in making your own investment decisions it’s wise to run them by a licensed adviser. It’s surprisingly common for investors to develop an emotional attachment to particular shares or properties they own. Concentration risk can also increase over time due to lack of attention. Your financial planner will assess your portfolio for hidden concentration risk and help you achieve a better balance of investments.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What is money… really?

What is money… really?

Updated on Economy, Finance

That $50 note in your pocket. What’s it worth? “$50,” you say, probably thinking it’s a dumb question. But is it really? Or a sheet of plastic and a bit of ink that likely cost the note printer less than a cent? Your $50 note only has value because the government declares that it does. This lack of intrinsic value means your $50 note, and the balances of bank accounts that represent most money in circulation, might better be described as currency rather than ‘real money’. Over the past few thousand years all sorts of items have been used as currency, from shells and cocoa beans to soap and cigarettes. But to be considered real money, several key criteria need to be met. The most important are that it is: Recognised as a medium of exchange and accepted by most people within an economy. Durable. Portable, having a high value relative to its weight and size. Divisible into smaller amounts. Resistant to counterfeiting. A store of value over long timeframes. Of intrinsic value, i.e. not reliant on anything else for its value. Throughout history gold and silver have come closest to meeting these and other criteria, though nowadays you’ll have difficulty in paying for your groceries with gold Krugerrands. Also, you’ll want to keep your gold and silver in a safe place, and it was people seeking to do just that which gave rise to paper money and our current system of bank-created money. What started out as a good idea… Centuries ago goldsmiths would take in gold and silver for safekeeping and issue the owners receipts, or notes, confirming the amount of gold held. The depositors soon discovered that these notes could be used for payment in place of the physical gold, but the goldsmiths noticed something else. It was rare for anyone to redeem all their notes at once. They saw the opportunity to issue notes as a loan that borrowers paid back over time, with interest. Provided borrowers paid back their loans on time and only a small proportion of owners wanted their gold back at any given time, all was well, and goldsmiths transformed into bankers. But this didn’t always work out. An economic shock might see everyone wanting their gold back, and if the bank couldn’t deliver the full amount that was demanded, it went broke. To help prevent this, many countries created central banks, with some governments even acting as lender-of-last-resort. While government control and the rules around banking have evolved over time, private banks are still the source of most currency created today. When things get real In economically stable times it’s easy to think of currency and real money as the same thing. However, a couple of examples reveal the difference between the two. One is when a government starts printing money to pay for its programs. Inflation usually results, and the value of currency can plummet. In the case of hyperinflation, paper money and bank deposits can quickly become worthless as happened in Germany in the 1920s. The difference between currency and real money and the issue of intrinsic value has implications for other investments. If you would like to learn more, talk to us. We’re here to help.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

Updated on COVID-19, Finance, Investing

There isn’t a single person in the world who hasn’t been impacted by COVID-19. As new case numbers start to slow in Australia, so too is our economy. This time presents new challenges as everyone gets used to a “new normal” and figures out the best way to weather the coming months. This article provides an overview of different measures the Federal Government has announced to support individuals and businesses, current market performance and what you should be thinking about when it comes to your finances and continuing to build long-term wealth. Government support for individuals and businessesThe Federal Government has announced two economic stimulus packages and the JobKeeper Payment to support individuals and businesses. An overview of the Federal Government’s measures announced to date is detailed below. Support for individualsThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help individuals. Eligibility to access these measures is determined on criteria such as your employment status or loss of income due to COVID-19. Some of the key measures include: two $750 payments to social security, veteran and other income support recipients (first payment from 31 March 2020 and the second payment from 13 July 2020); access to the JobKeeper Payment from your employer (if eligible) equal to $1,500 per fortnight; a time-limited supplementary payment for new and existing concession recipients of the JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance, Parenting Payment, and Farm Household Allowance equal to $550 per fortnight; early release of superannuation funds (see overview below); and temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown rates (see overview below). Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support individuals are available on the Treasury website. Early release of superannuationEligible people will be able to access up to $10,000 of their superannuation in the 2019-20 financial year and a further $10,000 in the 2020-21 financial year. To access your super early, you need to meet ONE of the following five criteria: You are unemployed You are eligible for the JobSeeker payment, Youth Allowance for jobseekers, Parenting Payment special benefit or the Farm Household Allowance You were made redundant on or after 1 January 2020 Your working hours have reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 You are a sole trader, and your business activity was suspended, or your turnover has reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 If you are considering early release of your superannuation, you need to consider what the potential long-term impacts may be to the growth of your super fund and retirement income. While $20,000 may not seem like a lot of money now, it could have significant compounding value if left in your fund. Understandably, people may not have any other choice to support themselves financially. Make sure you speak to a financial professional to understand your risks and if this is a suitable option for you. If you are eligible, you can apply for early release of your superannuation directly with the ATO through the myGov website. Temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown ratesThe temporary reduction in the minimum drawdown requirements for account-based pensions has been designed to assist retirees who do not wish to sell their investment assets, while the value of those assets is reduced. The minimum drawdown rates have been temporarily halved. Support for businessesThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help businesses facing financial difficulty. Eligibility to access these measures depends on factors such as your turnover and how much your business’s revenue has decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these measures include: increasing the instant asset write-off threshold for depreciating assets from $30,000 to $150,000; allowing businesses with turnover below $500 million to deduct 50 per cent of eligible assets until 30 June 2021; PAYG withholding support, providing up to $100,000 in cash payments which allows businesses to receive payments equal to 100 per cent of salary and wages withheld from 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2020; and temporary measures to reduce the potential actions that could cause business insolvency. Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support businesses and eligibility criteria are available on the Treasury website. How the banks are approaching home loansBanks have announced that homeowners experiencing financial difficulty can pause their mortgage repayments for between three and six months. It’s important to remember that, in most cases, interest will still be capitalised and added to your outstanding loan balance. When payments restart, your lender may require increased repayments, or the term of your loan may be increased. These are important factors you need to discuss with your lender. What should you focus on when it comes to personal finance?While it can be tempting to sell all your investments now as the market declines, this locks in your losses and puts your wealth in a weak position. If you haven’t already defensively positioned your investments, speak with a financial adviser about how to best adjust your investing over the coming months. You should also consider how to maximise your returns as the market recovers. Investing and building wealth is a long-term game. As such, you should be investing with a long-term time horizon in mind. What should I do next?During this time, you may face some challenges with your finances. Your ability, however, to understand the options available to you and what the current period means on a long-term basis is key to getting through this challenging time productively. Further, making well thought out decisions now will give you the strong foundations you need in your health and wealth as the world recovers and embarks on a new period of growth. Before you make any big changes to your financial situation, speak to us to obtain personalised advice for your unique situation.   This is general information only

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