Economic Update: October-December 2022

1 February, 202325 January, 2023 Updated on25 January, 2023 Economy, Investing

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, domestic headline inflation is expected to reach 8% in the final month of 2022 as consumers continue to spend despite higher interest rates. Retail spending saw a significant increase of 6.4% during November, with Black Friday sales pushing the number even higher at 8% during the last week of the month. The surge in spending during this time is relatively new in Australia, with the event being similar to the Black Friday sales that occurred in 2021 but lower than the two previous years. This suggests that the trend may be a short-lived fad in the country.

Low unemployment levels and expectations of continued labour shortages throughout the economy appear to be creating newfound confidence among consumers, despite continued increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank appears determine to halt further price rises by pushing interest rates even higher through 2023, which will inevitably flow through to higher home loan rates and further falls in property prices. This is despite its own figures suggesting that if cash rates reach 3.6 per cent next year, some 15 per cent of Australian homebuyers will be experiencing negative cash flow, where their mortgage repayments exceed their net earnings.

Few analysts though are expecting widespread defaults, pointing to the build-up of large financial buffers through the pandemic, continued strong labour markets and earlier house price gains, all acting to help homeowners get through the coming year. Nonetheless, the expectation is for further downward pressure on property prices through 2023, with most analysts predicting a 15 to 20 per cent fall in national house prices from peak to trough with impaired or unrenovated properties experiencing even greater price falls.

Company profits are expected to remain strong through 2023, driven mostly by strong export prices, despite efforts to speed up the decarbonisation of the economy and move to more renewable sources of energy creation. Industries are expected to benefit from embracing public-private partnerships with the newly elected Federal Government in policy priority areas such as energy, defence, education, health, and security.

The continued strength of the domestic labour market and the strong international demand for Australia’s mining exports should also protect the domestic economy from the cold winds that are currently blowing through the international economy.

The United States economy, typically the powerhouse of the world economy, is almost certainly expected to fall into recession later in 2023, with domestic economic growth there expected to fall to a lacklustre 0.5 to 1 per cent for the calendar year of 2023.

The Chinese economy is still held moribund by the continuing impact of the pandemic with reported cases of Covid 19 soaring as winter takes its grip on the country, causing factory shutdowns and with that, a fall in exports.

In the United Kingdom, inflation peaked at 11.8 per cent in October 2022 and is expected to remain in double digits for some time as higher energy prices, interest rates and general cost of living increases cause widespread price hikes around that nation.

While the Bank of England is doing its best to bring inflation under control, there is widespread resentment that it is the poorest and most vulnerable in the community that are paying the highest price for the nation’s economic woes. A situation made worse by the slowdown in economic activity in Europe generally, as the ongoing war in the Ukraine continues to take its toll, driving energy prices higher and causing massive economic dislocation.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The effect of rising inflation

3 August, 202227 July, 2022 Updated on27 July, 2022 Budgeting, Economy

The word ‘inflation’ doesn’t only dominate business news headlines but finds its way into general news reports too. So, what is inflation and how does it affect you? In simple terms, inflation signifies a rise in the price of goods and services, meaning you pay more for every purchase you make. Does the US influence Australia’s inflation rate? It is not a surprise that countries in today’s world are more connected than ever before. Therefore, a rise in US inflation rates will impact the Australian economy too. However, the degree and timing of its impact will vary. For example, a rise in labour costs in the US may have a limited impact on Australians; however, an increase in the price of iPhones or Nike shoes in the US will reflect in their price in Australia too. What will be the impact of rising US inflation on Australia’s economy? Interest rate movements made by the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) are closely monitored by central banks worldwide, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past decade, many developed economies, including the US and Australia, have reduced interest rates to boost their economies. With rates rebounding from all-time lows there is an expectation that rates will continue increasing due to the strong performance of those economies. Quite often when the Fed increases its interest rate, Australia is quick to follow suit. The cost of borrowing funds will increase, leading to a rise in the inflation rate, making goods and services more expensive. Rising inflation rates can also negatively impact the Australian dollar, where one AUD buys less USD than it may have done previously. What will be the effect on investors? A rise in inflation affects investment markets negatively due to higher interest rates, volatility in the economy and uncertain share prices. For some investors, rising interest rates mean paying more interest on their home loan, which reduces their disposal income and, in turn reduces their capacity to invest. For retirees, an increase in the price of goods and services at a time of share market volatility can lead to having to sell more of their investment assets (potentially at a loss or reduced profit). Also, there could be uncertainty in dividend income, which many retirees often rely upon. Retiree investors will have fewer years to recover from a drop in their portfolios compared to younger investors. How should you prepare for a rise in inflation? It is important to first analyse your personal cashflow situation to understand where your money goes. Consider fixing at least part your home loan to limit your exposure to rising interest rates. Reconsider new personal loans, such as car loans. Do you need to take on new debt when interest rates are likely to increase? For the risk-taking investor, it can be tempting to invest more money into shares when prices are falling, but always consider averaging your position to avoid market timing risk. For investment purposes, consider having exposure in well established companies “blue chip stocks” vs riskier stock. Investors often find comfort knowing their funds are exposed to good quality companies with strong balance sheets. If the thought of rising inflation leaves you feeling unsettled, be sure to talk to a professional adviser. Your adviser will review your financial position, your ability to meet your financial obligations, as well as identify strategies to outpace inflation. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Unlocking financial secrets for different phases of life

9 September, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Finance, Investing

One of the keys to financial success is to adopt the right strategy at the right time. As you move through the stages of life, here are some tried and tested ‘secrets’ that will help you build and protect your wealth. Teens and young adults Time is on your side so get saving. Through the magic of compound interest, a little bit invested now can grow into a big amount over time. Most young people don’t want to think about life in 50 years time, but if a 15-year-old starts saving just $10 per week into an investment returning 5% pa (after fees and tax), when they turn 65 their total outlay of $26,000 will have grown to over $116,000. Contributing those savings to a tax-favoured vehicle such as superannuation may provide an even higher final return. Single life Saving is still a key strategy as careers are established, but usually with a shorter timeframe and a specific purpose in mind – buying a home, for example. This is a time when savings strategies can be brought undone by the allure of desirable things and the ease with which one can go into debt. Take care not to indulge in too many luxuries, and avoid taking on any high interest debt, such as credit cards. Rather, commit to working out a budget and sticking to it. Family focus The time of kids and mortgages is also the time of peak responsibility. It’s likely that your most valuable asset is your ability to earn an income, and illness, disability or death could deprive you and your family of that income. The financial consequences of each of these possibilities can be managed with a blend of income protection, total and permanent disability, trauma and life insurances. Preparing for retirement With offspring launched into the world and earning capacity often at a peak, a wealth of opportunities open up for pre-retirees. By all means enjoy some lifestyle spending, but don’t forget to supercharge your super in anticipation of a long retirement. In times of normal interest rates, using surplus income to pay off any outstanding home loan is often recommended, however, when interest rates are very low, investing spare income into super and leaving debt repayments until later may deliver a better outcome. Golden years Australians are up there with the leaders when it comes to enjoying long and healthy retirements. That means retirement savings need to last, so a): don’t go too hard too fast in spending your super, and b): don’t invest too conservatively, particularly in times of ultra-low interest rates. On the plus side, if you’ve employed the above secrets in each phase of life, you should be in good shape to enjoy a long, financially comfortable retirement. Whatever your stage of life, there are many things you could be doing to secure your financial future. To find out more, talk to us today. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Giving the gift of investing

2 September, 202126 August, 2021 Updated on26 August, 2021 Education, Investing

Did you have a savings account when you were young? It wasn’t uncommon and those old Passbook accounts funded many a first car. Now you’re a parent, are you thinking of opening an account for your kids? Record low interest rates have taken some of the fun out of watching bank accounts grow, but there are alternatives. For example, have you considered a share portfolio? Direct shares follow market movements, whether that be up or down, but over time, quality shares have greater growth potential than many other investment types. For a child’s investment fund, you’re probably looking at a savings term around 15 to 20 years – ideal for riding market ups-and-downs. How do shares and savings accounts compare? Consider the following example: Initial investment: $500Monthly contribution: $50Investment term: 20 years Assumptions: Savings account return calculated on 1% per annum interest. Share portfolio return 4% per annum based on a comparison of mixed Balanced Asset funds over the past three years to December 2020. This example demonstrates how shares, year-on-year, can potentially outpace a savings account. By year 20, your child’s projected Savings Account balance could be $13,899 and the projected Share Portfolio balance could be $19,450. Straight-forward? Not so fast, as there are a few other points to think about. Tax and TFNs Your child can have a tax file number (TFN) – there’s no minimum age. All funds will request a TFN, but whether you quote the child’s TFN or your own depends on a number of factors like who is contributing to the investment, whether the money is being used, etc. Tax is tricky too. Your child’s age and whether they’re earning their own money will determine whether they have an income tax liability and need to lodge a tax return. Additionally, there’s Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Share portfolios are assessed for CGT if the assets are sold for more than their purchase price. The amount of CGT payable will depend on a number of elements, but your tax agent will be able to assist. There will always be tax, but how much, what type and how it is calculated will depend on your, and your child’s, circumstances. Do your sums to work out the most suitable tax outcome for you and your child. Remember that mistakes can be costly so it’s wise to consult a tax accountant for personalised advice. Everyone’s situation is different and investment types and structures are not one-size-suits-all. Before making any decisions, seek the advice of qualified professionals, and regardless of whether you choose a share portfolio or an alternative investment, you’ll be across your options and confident that your particular needs are being met. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: First quarter results reflect shock

8 April, 202021 December, 2020 Updated on21 December, 2020 Finance

The first quarter of 2020 will forever be remembered for delivering one of the greatest health and economic shocks of all time. The economic damage was an inevitable consequence of governments worldwide taking unprecedented action to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus that emerged in China in December 2019. Never have so many people in so many countries experienced such major upheaval to their daily lives at the one time. With numerous countries enacting harsh measures to reduce person-to-person spread of the virus, many sectors of most economies effectively ground to a halt. Tourism, travel, entertainment and hospitality were particularly badly affected, but the fallout will be felt far and wide for some time to come. By the numbersFinancial markets (and many governments) were slow to appreciate the magnitude of the coronavirus threat. Major share markets rose steadily, setting record highs on 20 February, then, as the likely economic consequences of tackling coronavirus became apparent, markets plunged. From its peak of 7,163 the S&P/ASX 200 index fell to 4,546 on 23 March. A rally then saw the index rise to 5,077 at the end of March, 24% down from the start of the quarter. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 34% from top to bottom. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index dropped 35%. Both indices recovered ground at the end of the quarter to limit January to March losses to 18% and 21% respectively. The Reserve Bank moved quickly to further cut interest rates to 0.25%. This is as low as the RBA is prepared to go, with the Governor indicating this rate will be with us for several years come. Partly in response, and partly due to investors seeking the relative safety of the US dollar, the Australian dollar plunged from US$0.66 US to US$0.55. It then staged a partial recovery to end the quarter at US$0.61. Falls against other currencies were less severe. Massive stimulusGovernments around the world responded with programs that will, over time, pump almost unimaginable sums of money into the economy – hundreds of billions of dollars in Australia, trillions in the US. Banks have deferred some loan repayments, and many landlords will forgo rent payments. The focus is on helping employers retain staff, to provide income support to people who do lose their jobs, and to assist pensioners. One aim is to minimise economic disruption now to facilitate a quicker recovery once coronavirus is brought under control. However, despite these economic initiatives, escalating public health measures saw thousands of businesses close in March, with job losses estimated to be more than one million. While most of the economic stimulus measures were widely applauded, some concern was expressed over the ability of eligible people to withdraw up to $10,000 from superannuation this financial year, and again in 2020/2021. Withdrawing money from super at a time of depressed prices will likely have a major adverse impact on future superannuation savings, leading a number of observers to suggest that this option only be considered once all others have been exhausted. Few silver liningsIt’s difficult to find any silver linings in the clouds of the current crisis. While motorists may welcome the drop in petrol prices, due to oil falling from over US$60 per barrel to near US$20 per barrel, this is a sign of how hard the pandemic is hitting the economy. One small positive: with airlines grounded, people staying home and many industries closed, air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions are down. For advice on how to manage your investments through this financial downturn contact us today. This is general information only

Building financial resilience

30 January, 20249 February, 2024 Updated on9 February, 2024 Budgeting, Education, Finance, Investing

Resilience is the ability to quickly recover from setbacks, and while setbacks can come in many forms most of them will have a financial component. So what can you do to build financial resilience? Expect the unexpected Rarely do we get advance warning that something bad is about to happen to us, so the time to develop your resilience strategy is now. And while we don’t know the specifics, we can anticipate events that would throw our finances into disarray. A house burning down or a car being stolen. Not being able to work due to illness or injury. The death of a breadwinner or caregiver. With some idea of the type of threat we face we may be able to insure against some of them. If you have taken out any type of insurance policy you’ve already made a start on your resilience plan. Create buffers You can’t insure against every possibility, but you can build financial buffers. This might simply be a savings account that you earmark as your emergency fund that you contribute to each payday. If your home loan offers a redraw facility you can also create a buffer by getting ahead on your mortgage repayments. Buffers can be particularly important for retirees drawing a pension from their super fund. Redeeming growth assets for cash in order to make pension payments during a market downturn can lead to a depletion of capital and reduction in how long the money will last. By maintaining a cash buffer of, say, two year’s worth of pension payments, redemptions of growth assets can be deferred, giving time for the market to recover. Cut costs The Internet abounds with tips on how to cut costs and save money. In difficult economic times cost cutting can help you maintain your financial buffers and important insurances. Key to cost cutting is tracking your income and expenditure and yes, that means doing a budget. Find the right budgeting app for you and this chore could actually be fun. Invest in quality There are many companies out there that have long track records of consistently pumping out profits and dividends. They may not be as exciting (i.e. volatile) as the latest techno fad stocks but when markets get the jitters these blue chip companies are more likely to maintain their value than the newcomers. This is important. The more volatile a portfolio the more likely an investor is to sell down into a declining market. This turns paper losses into real ones, depriving the investor the opportunity to ride the market back up again. The other key tool in creating resilient portfolios is diversification. Buying a range of investments both within and across the major asset classes is a fundamental strategy for managing portfolio volatility. With a well-diversified portfolio of quality assets there is less need to regularly buy and sell individual investments. Unnecessary trading can create ‘tax drag’ where the realisation of even a marginal capital gain triggers a capital gains tax event and consequent reduction in portfolio value. Take advice Building financial resilience can be a complicated process requiring an understanding of a range of issues that need to be balanced against one another and prioritised. Your financial planner is ideally placed to assist you in developing your own, personalised plan for financial resilience. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Are you investing or gambling?

26 August, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Investing

The potential financial results of investing can feel limitless, and it can be tempting to think that just one stock pick could make you an overnight millionaire. Yes, stock-picking can have a place in your investment strategy, but if you’re using a “get rich quick” mentality, you may be gambling, not investing. What’s the difference? One of the key differences between investing and gambling is process and strategy. If you don’t have a process and strategy in place, it is a sign that you need to establish or refine your plan. Further, gambling focuses on emotions such as hope. Investing, on the other hand, is all about strategy. With a clear strategy, you know approximately how much your investments will grow and over what time horizons. How do you know if you’re investing effectively? If you’re unsure whether your current investment approach is working to realise your goals, think about your investment process and how many of the below five elements are included in your approach. Completing no research If you’re not completing any research and putting money into assets based on tips from friends or what you see on social media, you’re exposing yourself to increased risk and not doing enough due diligence. Investing in micro-cap stocks only Micro-cap stocks typically have a market capitalisation under $500 million and are ranked from 350 to 600 on the Australian Stock Exchange. With a relatively small market capitalisation, buying stocks in these companies can be cheap. The downside, however, is that these companies are usually in their infancy and experience volatile price fluctuations. There’s a place for micro-cap stocks in your investing. However, if you’re putting all of your money into these companies, you’re likely exposing yourself to unnecessary risk. Investing with short time horizons Putting all of your money into short-term investments or activities such as day trading is an indication that you’re too focused on short-term gains without a long-term strategy. There’s a place for short time horizons in your investing, but only once you’ve mastered the foundations such as establishing a long-term plan and ensuring you have adequate cash buffers. Lack of diversification If all of your money is invested in one asset class, you’ll be over-exposed to volatility in a single market. To ensure your money grows consistently over time, your money needs to be balanced across a range of asset classes and sectors. Having no investment strategy If you don’t have an investment strategy, your investing won’t be as effective as it could be. To start putting together an investment strategy, you need to think about things such as: building up adequate cash buffers; how much money you need invested to live comfortably off your returns; and when you anticipate you’ll start drawing an income from your investments. Moving forward with a long-term wealth strategy Investing in different asset classes such as equities, commodities, and fixed-income assets is a great way to build long-term wealth. To build this wealth, however, you need a strategy and process to follow. If you’re unsure how to develop an investment strategy, be sure to seek qualified financial advice. Investing in this advice now can reap great rewards in the years to come, ensuring your money is working to help you realise your financial and lifestyle goals sooner. Contact us to get started. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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