COVID-19 Economic Update

COVID-19 Economic Update

Updated on COVID-19, Finance

During the last quarter one story has dominated the news – COVID-19. By the end of June at least 10 million people had contracted the disease, and over 500,000 had died. With 8,000 cases and 104 deaths, Australia was amongst the countries that have been most successful in limiting its spread. However, this success came with a major cost. By June, 800,000 fewer people were on the nation’s payrolls than at the start of the pandemic. The travel, hospitality and entertainment sectors were particularly hard-hit. One consequence of this major loss of employment is that many people took advantage of the ability to withdraw up to $10,000 from their superannuation prior to the end of June. As of mid-June, over 2.3 million people had applied, with nearly $16 billion worth of withdrawals processed. A further $10,000 can be withdrawn in the new financial year. While this will prove a real lifeline for the many people who need the money now, those who do withdraw the maximum amounts are likely to be tens of thousands of dollars worse off in retirement, with younger people facing the biggest losses. Key numbers Perhaps surprisingly, investment markets took an optimistic view of the long-term financial consequences of COVID-19. While not returning to its record highs, the S&P ASX200 index rose 16% over the quarter, a little behind the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index (up 18.7%) and the US S&P500 (up 18%). However, the real action was on the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which lifted 30.6% over the three months to set a new high. The RBA cash rate stayed at 0.25%, with no great expectations of a change anytime soon. The Aussie dollar rose steadily, increasing from 61.7 to 69.1 US cents from the end of March until end of June. It enjoyed similar gains against the British Pound and Japanese Yen, and a slightly smaller gain against the Euro. While there are many factors that influence the value of the dollar, this last quarter saw it closely following the fortunes of one of our major export commodities – iron ore. What next? COVID-19 is likely to remain the dominant story for some time yet. Following the initial lockdown, countries around the world, Australia included, are conducting something of an experiment in trying to ease restrictions without triggering ‘second waves’ or other outbreaks. Events in Victoria have shown how challenging this can be, but successfully lifting lockdowns is a critical step towards restoring anything resembling normal economic activity. Another challenge facing the federal government is how to continue to support the millions of people on the JobKeeper allowance and the JobSeeker supplement. With these programs due to end in September, there is concern that their sudden cessation will deliver another blow to the economy.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Investing 101

Investing 101

Updated on Finance

Whether it’s taking a more active interest in our superannuation, starting to build an investment portfolio, or even trying our hands at playing the stock market, we can all benefit by understanding the language and key concepts of investing.   Asset classes There is a huge range of potential investments out there, and these can be grouped together in asset classes that are based on shared characteristics. There are many asset classes, however the major ones that most mainstream investors focus on are shares, property, fixed interest and cash.   Shares give investors part ownership in specific companies. The share market sets the value of each share and prices can fluctuate significantly, even from day to day. This price volatility means that, relative to other asset classes, shares are higher risk, particularly in the short term. However, investors expect to be rewarded for taking on this risk by the potential for shares to deliver higher long-term gains than the other asset classes. Property also provides investors with full or partial ownership of growth assets. Income is received in the form of rent, and property can also provide capital growth. As property can, at times, fall in value, it is considered a medium to high-risk asset class. Fixed interest refers to investment in government or corporate bonds. Bonds are a type of loan, and each bond has a maturity date (the date the loan is repaid), a maturity value (the amount returned at the maturity date), a coupon rate and a market value. The coupon rate is fixed for the life of the bond (hence the term ‘fixed interest’), but the market value can fluctuate depending on movements in interest rates. Cash covers bank accounts and term deposits. Returns are in the form of interest payments, and cash is generally considered to be a low risk asset class. Why are asset classes important? One of the golden rules of investment is that when seeking higher returns, investors must take on a greater degree of risk. Quality fixed interest investments provide a high certainty of a particular return. They are low risk, and the returns they offer reflect this. However, for any given share, we don’t know what its price will be in a week, a month or a year. Prices may be volatile, the return is uncertain, so a share is a higher risk investment. However, that risk can be a positive thing – upside risk – which is the potential for the share to generate a higher than expected return.   Asset classes bundle together investments with similar risk and return profiles. By blending these asset classes together in different proportions – a process called asset allocation – investors can construct portfolios that provide levels of risk and return that suit specific needs.   This blending of different asset classes results in diversification, which is a critical risk management tool. As different asset classes over and under perform at different times, mixing different asset classes lowers the volatility, and hence the risk, of a portfolio.   As far as returns are concerned, studies have shown that over 90% of a portfolio’s performance is determined by the asset allocation. It’s vastly more important than individual investment selection or the timing of purchases and sales.   Help is at hand Of course, there’s more to investing than can be conveyed in a short article, but that’s no reason to delay putting the various markets to work. Speak to us today and we can help you understand your risk comfort level and design an investment strategy that’s right for you.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Shares are more than numbers

Shares are more than numbers

Updated on Finance, Investing

[fsn_row][fsn_column width=”12″][fsn_text] Whether it’s by direct purchase, via a managed fund or through superannuation, most Australians hold some form of share investment. Many of us are aware that if the numbers in the finance report on the evening news are mostly green that’s good and if they’re red that’s bad, but beyond that we give little thought to what shares are and why we should take an interest in them.   What’s a share? When you buy shares, you aren’t just buying a piece of paper or a digital entry on an electronic register. You are actually buying a physical part of a company. It might be a tiny fraction of the total value, but it still provides you with certain rights and responsibilities, including the opportunity to participate in the direction of the company. Shares are real assets and depending on the size and stability of the company, you can even borrow against them.   The benefits For most people, the most important aspect to share ownership is being able to share in the profits and growth of the company. For ordinary shares, a portion of the profit is usually paid out via twice-yearly dividends. Some profits may be retained to fund the growth of the company, and this should be reflected in an increase in share price over time. These capital gains can be realised by selling the shares. The downside is that, if the company does poorly, investors may see a fall in the value of their shares.   Getting involved Beyond receiving dividends and (hopefully) watching the share price increase, many investors take little interest in their shares. But shareholders also enjoy the right to have a say in the running of the business, by voting for or against the appointment of specific directors and on resolutions at the Annual General Meeting. One share equals one vote, so large institutional investors such as superannuation funds usually have the greatest say, but even small investors can turn up at the AGM and potentially ask questions of the board. And groups of shareholders may get together to influence a company’s direction on a range of business or governance issues.   Buying shares in up and coming companies is also a way of putting one’s money where one’s values and interests are, for example in renewable energy, recycling, medical technologies, batteries or emerging markets.   The rewards of investing in shares can be enormous, and they’re not just financial. There’s real pride to be gained from looking at a company that has achieved great things and to know that you’ve played a part in its success.   However, there is a financial risk associated with owning shares, so if you want to treat your share portfolio as more than just numbers on a screen, speak to us.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. [/fsn_text][/fsn_column][/fsn_row]

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

Updated on COVID-19, Finance, Investing

There isn’t a single person in the world who hasn’t been impacted by COVID-19. As new case numbers start to slow in Australia, so too is our economy. This time presents new challenges as everyone gets used to a “new normal” and figures out the best way to weather the coming months. This article provides an overview of different measures the Federal Government has announced to support individuals and businesses, current market performance and what you should be thinking about when it comes to your finances and continuing to build long-term wealth. Government support for individuals and businessesThe Federal Government has announced two economic stimulus packages and the JobKeeper Payment to support individuals and businesses. An overview of the Federal Government’s measures announced to date is detailed below. Support for individualsThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help individuals. Eligibility to access these measures is determined on criteria such as your employment status or loss of income due to COVID-19. Some of the key measures include: two $750 payments to social security, veteran and other income support recipients (first payment from 31 March 2020 and the second payment from 13 July 2020); access to the JobKeeper Payment from your employer (if eligible) equal to $1,500 per fortnight; a time-limited supplementary payment for new and existing concession recipients of the JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance, Parenting Payment, and Farm Household Allowance equal to $550 per fortnight; early release of superannuation funds (see overview below); and temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown rates (see overview below). Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support individuals are available on the Treasury website. Early release of superannuationEligible people will be able to access up to $10,000 of their superannuation in the 2019-20 financial year and a further $10,000 in the 2020-21 financial year. To access your super early, you need to meet ONE of the following five criteria: You are unemployed You are eligible for the JobSeeker payment, Youth Allowance for jobseekers, Parenting Payment special benefit or the Farm Household Allowance You were made redundant on or after 1 January 2020 Your working hours have reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 You are a sole trader, and your business activity was suspended, or your turnover has reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 If you are considering early release of your superannuation, you need to consider what the potential long-term impacts may be to the growth of your super fund and retirement income. While $20,000 may not seem like a lot of money now, it could have significant compounding value if left in your fund. Understandably, people may not have any other choice to support themselves financially. Make sure you speak to a financial professional to understand your risks and if this is a suitable option for you. If you are eligible, you can apply for early release of your superannuation directly with the ATO through the myGov website. Temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown ratesThe temporary reduction in the minimum drawdown requirements for account-based pensions has been designed to assist retirees who do not wish to sell their investment assets, while the value of those assets is reduced. The minimum drawdown rates have been temporarily halved. Support for businessesThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help businesses facing financial difficulty. Eligibility to access these measures depends on factors such as your turnover and how much your business’s revenue has decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these measures include: increasing the instant asset write-off threshold for depreciating assets from $30,000 to $150,000; allowing businesses with turnover below $500 million to deduct 50 per cent of eligible assets until 30 June 2021; PAYG withholding support, providing up to $100,000 in cash payments which allows businesses to receive payments equal to 100 per cent of salary and wages withheld from 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2020; and temporary measures to reduce the potential actions that could cause business insolvency. Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support businesses and eligibility criteria are available on the Treasury website. How the banks are approaching home loansBanks have announced that homeowners experiencing financial difficulty can pause their mortgage repayments for between three and six months. It’s important to remember that, in most cases, interest will still be capitalised and added to your outstanding loan balance. When payments restart, your lender may require increased repayments, or the term of your loan may be increased. These are important factors you need to discuss with your lender. What should you focus on when it comes to personal finance?While it can be tempting to sell all your investments now as the market declines, this locks in your losses and puts your wealth in a weak position. If you haven’t already defensively positioned your investments, speak with a financial adviser about how to best adjust your investing over the coming months. You should also consider how to maximise your returns as the market recovers. Investing and building wealth is a long-term game. As such, you should be investing with a long-term time horizon in mind. What should I do next?During this time, you may face some challenges with your finances. Your ability, however, to understand the options available to you and what the current period means on a long-term basis is key to getting through this challenging time productively. Further, making well thought out decisions now will give you the strong foundations you need in your health and wealth as the world recovers and embarks on a new period of growth. Before you make any big changes to your financial situation, speak to us to obtain personalised advice for your unique situation.   This is general information only

Economic Update: First quarter results reflect shock

Economic Update: First quarter results reflect shock

Updated on Finance

The first quarter of 2020 will forever be remembered for delivering one of the greatest health and economic shocks of all time. The economic damage was an inevitable consequence of governments worldwide taking unprecedented action to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus that emerged in China in December 2019. Never have so many people in so many countries experienced such major upheaval to their daily lives at the one time. With numerous countries enacting harsh measures to reduce person-to-person spread of the virus, many sectors of most economies effectively ground to a halt. Tourism, travel, entertainment and hospitality were particularly badly affected, but the fallout will be felt far and wide for some time to come. By the numbersFinancial markets (and many governments) were slow to appreciate the magnitude of the coronavirus threat. Major share markets rose steadily, setting record highs on 20 February, then, as the likely economic consequences of tackling coronavirus became apparent, markets plunged. From its peak of 7,163 the S&P/ASX 200 index fell to 4,546 on 23 March. A rally then saw the index rise to 5,077 at the end of March, 24% down from the start of the quarter. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 34% from top to bottom. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index dropped 35%. Both indices recovered ground at the end of the quarter to limit January to March losses to 18% and 21% respectively. The Reserve Bank moved quickly to further cut interest rates to 0.25%. This is as low as the RBA is prepared to go, with the Governor indicating this rate will be with us for several years come. Partly in response, and partly due to investors seeking the relative safety of the US dollar, the Australian dollar plunged from US$0.66 US to US$0.55. It then staged a partial recovery to end the quarter at US$0.61. Falls against other currencies were less severe. Massive stimulusGovernments around the world responded with programs that will, over time, pump almost unimaginable sums of money into the economy – hundreds of billions of dollars in Australia, trillions in the US. Banks have deferred some loan repayments, and many landlords will forgo rent payments. The focus is on helping employers retain staff, to provide income support to people who do lose their jobs, and to assist pensioners. One aim is to minimise economic disruption now to facilitate a quicker recovery once coronavirus is brought under control. However, despite these economic initiatives, escalating public health measures saw thousands of businesses close in March, with job losses estimated to be more than one million. While most of the economic stimulus measures were widely applauded, some concern was expressed over the ability of eligible people to withdraw up to $10,000 from superannuation this financial year, and again in 2020/2021. Withdrawing money from super at a time of depressed prices will likely have a major adverse impact on future superannuation savings, leading a number of observers to suggest that this option only be considered once all others have been exhausted. Few silver liningsIt’s difficult to find any silver linings in the clouds of the current crisis. While motorists may welcome the drop in petrol prices, due to oil falling from over US$60 per barrel to near US$20 per barrel, this is a sign of how hard the pandemic is hitting the economy. One small positive: with airlines grounded, people staying home and many industries closed, air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions are down. For advice on how to manage your investments through this financial downturn contact us today.   This is general information only

The true cost of a pandemic

The true cost of a pandemic

Updated on Finance

Recent events such as the coronavirus outbreak, bushfires across Australia and the drought highlight the far-reaching effects of an epidemic. Following the initial devastation of these events, the true cost of an epidemic takes time to filter through the economy. In this article, we’re taking a look at the economic impacts that epidemics and pandemics have on a local, regional and global scale. How do epidemics and pandemics affect industries? The biggest impact on many industries in an epidemic or pandemic is supply chain delays. Industries rely on specific regions to source parts and products. Using the coronavirus outbreak and assembly lines for technology products, as an example, people in assembly lines typically work in close quarters. To contain the outbreak, factories in China have delayed restarting production after the Lunar New Year break. One smartphone factory, Foxconn, is expecting a 12% decrease in production as a result. Tourism is another key industry effected by epidemics and pandemics. In Australia, measures to contain coronavirus, including halting incoming flights from China will have significant impacts on the tourism and education industries. How are individual businesses effected by epidemics and pandemics? Businesses within the sectors most impacted by epidemics and pandemics experience the effects of an outbreak first. In Australia, for example, travel booking company Webjet experienced a 10% slump in its share price in late-January following the coronavirus outbreak. Other companies such as JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman have said their supply of electronics could be disrupted. Small and medium businesses can often be the hardest hit. Businesses such as restaurants and retailers in tourist hotspots and tourism services companies will be among the hardest hit in Australia over the coming months. How long does it take for markets to recover after an epidemic? Market recovery following an epidemic is dependent on a range of factors. Following the SARS outbreak, for example, the Chinese Government deployed fiscal stimulus to aid in economic recovery. At the time of the SARS outbreak (first quarter of 2003), China’s economic growth was 11.1%. By the second quarter, the country’s economic growth fell to 9.1%. As the outbreak was contained, and fiscal stimulus was deployed, China’s economic growth recovered to 10% by the third quarter of 2003. Looking at other markets, the S&P500 posted a gain of 14.59% following the first confirmed case of SARS. The index posted a gain of 20.76% a year after the outbreak. How will an epidemic or pandemic impact my investments? The economy has changed since the SARS outbreak. China is now a much larger part of the global economy, accounting for around 17% of global GDP, compared to 4% in 2003, so the economic impacts of coronavirus may be more pronounced. The best thing investors can do right now is exercise caution, but don’t panic. Often market corrections provide investors an opportunity to invest into the market at discount prices. To discuss how your investments may be impacted by coronavirus speak to us today.   This is general information only

Financial Advice, Royal Commission and You

Financial Advice, Royal Commission and You

Updated on Finance

The Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry delivered its final report in February 2019, capping off a process that revealed the unethical and, in some cases, illegal practices of some of Australia’s largest banks, insurance and other financial services companies. Many of the Royal Commission’s recommendations are aimed squarely at financial services companies, and they should lead to changes in corporate attitudes and practices that will deliver indirect, and hopefully positive changes to many consumers. The Royal Commission also made a number of recommendations that will have a more direct impact on investors. Unfortunately, these may not always be for the better. Even though the Royal Commission unearthed a wide range of bad behaviours, it’s important to acknowledge the large number of financial advisers who have always adhered to high ethical standards while delivering great outcomes to their clients. Clients of these advisers may see little change in the relationship with their adviser and how their money is managed. So what changes are likely to affect consumers? A ban on conflicted remunerationConflicted remuneration arises when an adviser has an incentive, such as a sales bonus, to recommend an investment product. Conflicted remuneration was banned some time ago, but existing arrangements were ‘grandfathered’. These grandfathered arrangements will now cease. An end to trailing commissionsInvestment and superannuation products may pay the recommending adviser an ongoing annual or ‘trailing’ commission. The expectation is that the adviser will continue to provide ongoing review of the suitability of the product and recommend changes when warranted. Unfortunately, the Royal Commission revealed numerous cases where fees were charged and no advice given. This extended to fees being charged to dead peoples’ accounts. All investment and superannuation trailing commissions will cease from 2021. While this should lead to higher investment returns, many consumers will miss out on proactive follow up from advisers unless they ‘opt-in’ and agree to pay for advice. As the cost of such advice may be uneconomic for investors with smaller portfolios, the end of trailing commissions may deliver mixed outcomes. One prediction is that it may spark an increase in so called ‘robo advice’, where automated systems deliver lower cost, albeit more generic advice. Increased educational requirements for advisersNew advisers must now hold a relevant, degree level qualification. Existing advisers without such qualifications will need to undertake further study. While qualifications are important, they overlook the value of the real-world knowledge of experienced advisers. Many older advisers may retire rather than undertake additional study, which may lead to a shortage of advisers. Incidental outcomesAnother indirect outcome of the Royal Commission is that many of the larger banks and insurance companies have decided to sell off their financial advice businesses. This also has the potential to reduce the number of active advisers but may see a rise in the number of smaller, independent advisory firms. The Royal Commission has delivered a major and necessary shake-up of the financial services industry. To find out what the direct, personal impacts may be for you, talk to us. We’re here to help.    This is general information only

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