Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

Updated on Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last? Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023. The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years. The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund. At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget. Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

Economy

A sudden uptick in the unemployment rate and slower economic growth combined with continued strong inflationary pressures are set to test the Australian economy during the next two years, according to the Federal Government’s 2022 October Budget. While record commodity prices and higher Government revenues have provided some relief reducing the annual budget deficit from $78 billion to $36.9 billion, the economic outlook remains uncertain. Government spending will continue to outpace revenue with Canberra doing little to address the long-term structural difficulties contained within the budget, despite trying to restrain spending in order to limit inflationary pressures within the economy. Perhaps more importantly is the very real possibility that the Australian economy could tip into recession next year with unemployment set to spike at 5.5 per cent while economic growth is expected to slow to just 1.5 per cent. Global political and economic uncertainty cast a long shadow over this budget, with the Government allocating some $1.4 billion in aid to Pacific nations during coming years – one of the few areas of higher Government spending. Despite keeping a tight hold on outlays, the budget centrepiece is a pledge to build 1 million new houses across the nation during the next five years, in an attempt to alleviate the country’s chronic housing and rental shortages. Nonetheless, households will continue to face their own tough budgetary realities with energy prices tipped to explode by more than 56 per cent in the two years ahead and real wages expected to continue to fall. Fearful of pushing domestic inflation even higher, the Budget contains no cash relief or direct subsidies for households facing increasing cost of living pressures from higher energy costs, higher fuel prices and higher interest rates. Medicines will become cheaper with the maximum general co-payment for medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme cut from $42.50 to $30 while an additional 17 million scripts will now receive Government subsidies to reduce their cost to patients. In the meantime, the Government has left the door open to review the much-debated 2024 income tax cuts, which are focused on providing tax relief for high income earners, particularly wage earners who have been adversely impacted by ‘bracket-creep”. The former Government’s much talked about commuter car park programs have been axed along with $1.7 billion slashed from various Government regional dams’ projects over the next four years and $4.6 billion over the next twelve years. While the Government has promised to spend $1 billion to create 180,000 additional fee-free TAFE and vocational training places, little has been done to support small business, emerging from two years of pandemic created restrictions and tough trading conditions. Nonetheless, the whole country will benefit from the Government’s commitment to move to a low carbon economy and its “Rewiring the Nation” program is set to improve energy transmission and connect new renewable energy projects to the nation’s electricity grid. $800 million has been set aside for Powering Australia, which plans to cut taxes on electric vehicles, invest in a national EV charging network and provide solar battery storage for up to 100,000 Australian homes.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

Updated on Economy

The Federal Government has delivered a big-spending 2022 budget, taking immediate steps to reduce cost of living pressures for working Australians while implementing a range of massive infrastructure and defence spending measures. The Government will slash the fuel excise by half, effective immediately, as well as provide a one-off cash hand out of $250 to a range of social security recipients, and a $450 additional tax offset for low- and middle-income earners. Productivity will be boosted across the nation by enhanced training incentives, dramatic tax measures to drive greater digital adoption and improve computer-based efficiencies as well as steps to boost the nation’s overall level of self-sufficiency.  Concerns about the growing budget deficit, which has now reached $78 billion, have been largely put on the back burner with confidence placed in the fact that as the economy grows, this will naturally reduce. A bounding economy The Australian economy has posted astonishing growth. It has come roaring out of two years of pandemic induced lockdowns, to post strong growth across the nation, spurred on by higher prices for coal, iron ore and wheat. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by a massive 4.2% this year while wages are expected to grow by 2.75% and surge by 3.25 % in the following year. Unemployment is currently 4%, but this is expected to drop to 3.75 % over the next six months – its lowest level since 1974. An extra 100,000 Australians have found work compared to employment numbers recorded when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. This is expected to help slash welfare payments by $11 billion across the next four years. A focus on increased productivity Training and improved productivity remains a key focus, with the Government implementing a $365 million extension to the existing apprentice wage subsidy scheme, in an attempt to further boost apprenticeship training. The Federal Government is continuing its focus on boosting business productivity allowing a $120 tax deduction for every $100 spent on digital adoption technology, such as portable payment systems, cyber security measures and subscriptions to cloud based services. A similar tax measure will be introduced for businesses providing external training courses to staff whether online or in-person, to increase productivity throughout the economy. This will be supported by a raft of Government driven efficiencies such as digitalising trust income reporting, improved PAYG systems and automatic reporting of taxable payments. And a more efficient economy The 2022-23 budget also includes a raft of infrastructure projects that will drive greater efficiencies and economic growth across Australia in the decade ahead. In addition, the Government has announced steps to develop a circular waste economy, support low emission technologies including hydrogen, extended gas pipeline infrastructure and more efficient environment approval strategies. Source: budget.gov.au   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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