Fixed rate mortgage expiring… Now what?

Fixed rate mortgage expiring… Now what?

If your fixed interest rate expiry is coming up, you might have started to think about what happens next and what action you need to take. Or you might be sticking your head in the sand and avoiding the topic entirely. Be warned! The worst thing you can do is take no action at all. If your fixed interest period is due to expire, then it’s time for a review of your finances – Revisit your budget A fixed rate expiry will mean a change to what is often one of our biggest expenses – the home loan repayment. In a rising interest rate environment, this likely means a bigger expense you will need to allow for. By revisiting your budget, you can make sure you can afford the new home loan repayment amount, or adjust your spending where needed. Know your financial situation Your financial situation is going to impact what options are available to you and what options might be best for you. If there’s been recent changes to your income position such as job loss, income reduction or maternity leave, for example, this may impact your ability to refinance your loan. As a result, you may have to stick with your current lender on terms you may not be happy with. If you have surplus cash flow that you want to use to reduce debt, a variable rate loan might be more appropriate so that you’re not as limited with the ability to make repayments. Alternatively, if cash flow is tight, you might appreciate the stability of a fixed rate loan, and knowing your repayment amounts won’t increase during the fixed rate period. By having a good understanding of your current financial position and future goals, you can determine what your needs are and what the best strategy is for you moving forward. Look at what the market is doing One of the main factors to consider when deciding between a fixed and variable interest rate is the current market. While no one has a crystal ball, it’s important to consider what is happening with the economy, housing markets and interest rates. Are interest rates trending up or down? And what might this mean for both fixed and variable interest rate loans? Get clear on your options When your fixed interest term expires, you will need to choose between either re-fixing your loan for a period or switching to a variable interest rate loan. This is also a good opportunity to review your existing loan provider against other loan providers, to ensure you are being offered a competitive rate. With your market research in hand, it’s time to call your existing lender to request a rate review. You can let them know you are considering refinancing your loan and want to know what the best they could offer is. It might be time to switch lenders if they’re not prepared to offer you a competitive rate.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The effect of rising inflation

The effect of rising inflation

The word ‘inflation’ doesn’t only dominate business news headlines but finds its way into general news reports too. So, what is inflation and how does it affect you? In simple terms, inflation signifies a rise in the price of goods and services, meaning you pay more for every purchase you make. Does the US influence Australia’s inflation rate? It is not a surprise that countries in today’s world are more connected than ever before. Therefore, a rise in US inflation rates will impact the Australian economy too. However, the degree and timing of its impact will vary. For example, a rise in labour costs in the US may have a limited impact on Australians; however, an increase in the price of iPhones or Nike shoes in the US will reflect in their price in Australia too. What will be the impact of rising US inflation on Australia’s economy? Interest rate movements made by the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) are closely monitored by central banks worldwide, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past decade, many developed economies, including the US and Australia, have reduced interest rates to boost their economies. With rates rebounding from all-time lows there is an expectation that rates will continue increasing due to the strong performance of those economies. Quite often when the Fed increases its interest rate, Australia is quick to follow suit. The cost of borrowing funds will increase, leading to a rise in the inflation rate, making goods and services more expensive. Rising inflation rates can also negatively impact the Australian dollar, where one AUD buys less USD than it may have done previously. What will be the effect on investors? A rise in inflation affects investment markets negatively due to higher interest rates, volatility in the economy and uncertain share prices. For some investors, rising interest rates mean paying more interest on their home loan, which reduces their disposal income and, in turn reduces their capacity to invest. For retirees, an increase in the price of goods and services at a time of share market volatility can lead to having to sell more of their investment assets (potentially at a loss or reduced profit). Also, there could be uncertainty in dividend income, which many retirees often rely upon. Retiree investors will have fewer years to recover from a drop in their portfolios compared to younger investors. How should you prepare for a rise in inflation? It is important to first analyse your personal cashflow situation to understand where your money goes. Consider fixing at least part your home loan to limit your exposure to rising interest rates. Reconsider new personal loans, such as car loans. Do you need to take on new debt when interest rates are likely to increase? For the risk-taking investor, it can be tempting to invest more money into shares when prices are falling, but always consider averaging your position to avoid market timing risk. For investment purposes, consider having exposure in well established companies “blue chip stocks” vs riskier stock. Investors often find comfort knowing their funds are exposed to good quality companies with strong balance sheets. If the thought of rising inflation leaves you feeling unsettled, be sure to talk to a professional adviser. Your adviser will review your financial position, your ability to meet your financial obligations, as well as identify strategies to outpace inflation.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

The price of a lowly head of lettuce has never been a recognised barometer of the strength of the Australian economy, that is until the media started reporting iceberg lettuces were selling for $10 a head. Suddenly, this has become a touchstone for everything that is wrong with the domestic economy. Prices are on the rise, spurred by higher transport costs and climate-based disruptions to the food chain, and the cost of living is surging. While some relief came with an unexpected 5.2 per cent increase in the basic wage, a move endorsed by the newly elected Federal Government, the prospect of similar inflation linked wage increases were dismissed as a ‘baby boomer fantasy’ by the trade union movement. Nonetheless, fears of further wage increases remain. So, all eyes are now focused on price rises with the most recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pegging Australia’s rate of inflation at 5.1 per cent per annum. As bad as this might seem, it is still one of the lowest inflation rates among OECD nations, beaten only by Japan and Switzerland, at the bottom of the inflation table with 2.5 per cent, followed by Israel on 4.0 per cent, and Korea and France with 4.8 per cent. However, with inflation in the United States at 8.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent in the United Kingdom and both countries expecting this rate to go higher, the fear is Australia’s rate will start moving towards 7 per cent – a rate not seen in Australia for more than 20 years. Inflationary fears were made worse by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Phil Lowe, calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid stagflation and warning against any super-sized wage claims. Just the mere mention of stagflation, something not seen since the seventies, has sent a shiver through the economy. This drove fears that home loan interest rates will also be pushed higher, causing more financial stress for those who have borrowed heavily and bought property at the recent record-high prices. While all four of the big banks are reporting current home loan arrears at record low levels and the majority of customers are tracking well ahead on their home loan repayments, fears still remain about the impact of higher interest rates. Property prices have already started to slide with industry analysts expecting the average prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall by 10 per cent this calendar year and by potentially as much again next financial year. Meanwhile, the value of cryptocurrencies, which seems to magnify prevailing market sentiments, has collapsed across the board with values falling by as much as 70 per cent. The largest single cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, which was trading at just $US67.81 in July 06, 2013, soared as high as $US68,000 last November, is currently trading at $US20,200, with little market enthusiasm. While cryptocurrency was once touted as being something of a safe haven and a means of diversifying investment portfolios, it is fast becoming a magnifier of market excess and pessimistic economic sentiment.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: April-June 2021

Economic Update: April-June 2021

Employment surprise JobKeeper was a cornerstone of Australia’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. It provided millions of Australians with an ongoing income and kept thousands of businesses afloat, so when it came to an end in March expectations were that there would be a sharp spike in unemployment. One estimate was that 150,000 workers would lose their jobs. Happily, that wasn’t what happened. From March to April the unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%, then fell to just 5.1% in May. That’s below the 5.2% that applied in January 2020 before the pandemic hit, and an amazing outcome given the damage that COVID-19 continues to inflict on a virus-weary world. Housing continued to sizzle… Aspiring homeowners and upsizers endured another quarter of woe as home prices continued to soar. Nationally, dwelling prices were up 6.1% for the quarter and 13.5% for the year, with houses outperforming units. Of course, on the other side of the equation are homeowners, many of whom are delighted by the significant boost to their wealth. Continuing low interest rates remain the key driver, but other issues have played a part, including stamp duty discounts and households redirecting the cash they would otherwise have spent on overseas holidays. Lockdowns last year also affected the normal supply of property leading to pent-up demand. As subsidies are rolled back, supply and demand normalise and if population growth remains low, property price growth may well come back to ‘normal’ levels. And despite the RBA not expecting to raise interest rates until at least 2024, some economists are pointing to the low unemployment figures to predict that interest rates may begin to rise by the end of 2022. There is also growing speculation that the RBA and APRA will lift lending standards (e.g. requiring lower loan to valuation ratios) in order to rein in galloping price growth. …as did share markets Global markets performed strongly over the quarter with many setting record highs. Locally the S&P/ASX200 rose 7.7%, beating the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 6.9%. Tech shares were back in the lead with the NASDAQ gaining 11.2%, while the S&P500 rose steadily to gain 8.6%. The Aussie dollar fell slightly against the major currencies weakening late in the quarter following talk that the next move in US interest rates may be up. Also… – Workers receiving the minimum wage will see a boost to their pay packets from July, with the minimum wage rising by 2.5% to $772.60 per week or $20.33 per hour. – Most people will see the superannuation guarantee (SG) payment from their employers rise by 0.5% to 10% of normal wages. This is one step on the path to raising the SG to 12% by 2025. – According to Credit Suisse, nearly one in ten Australians are now millionaires. Twenty years ago the figure was less than 1%. Of course a million dollars today doesn’t have the buying power it did 20 years ago, but only Switzerland has more millionaires per capita than we do. – Massive infrastructure projects and home renovation booms have caused a global shortage of building materials. An indicator, perhaps, that some COVID-19 stimulus measures have been a tad overdone?   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What is money… really?

What is money… really?

That $50 note in your pocket. What’s it worth? “$50,” you say, probably thinking it’s a dumb question. But is it really? Or a sheet of plastic and a bit of ink that likely cost the note printer less than a cent? Your $50 note only has value because the government declares that it does. This lack of intrinsic value means your $50 note, and the balances of bank accounts that represent most money in circulation, might better be described as currency rather than ‘real money’. Over the past few thousand years all sorts of items have been used as currency, from shells and cocoa beans to soap and cigarettes. But to be considered real money, several key criteria need to be met. The most important are that it is: Recognised as a medium of exchange and accepted by most people within an economy. Durable. Portable, having a high value relative to its weight and size. Divisible into smaller amounts. Resistant to counterfeiting. A store of value over long timeframes. Of intrinsic value, i.e. not reliant on anything else for its value. Throughout history gold and silver have come closest to meeting these and other criteria, though nowadays you’ll have difficulty in paying for your groceries with gold Krugerrands. Also, you’ll want to keep your gold and silver in a safe place, and it was people seeking to do just that which gave rise to paper money and our current system of bank-created money. What started out as a good idea… Centuries ago goldsmiths would take in gold and silver for safekeeping and issue the owners receipts, or notes, confirming the amount of gold held. The depositors soon discovered that these notes could be used for payment in place of the physical gold, but the goldsmiths noticed something else. It was rare for anyone to redeem all their notes at once. They saw the opportunity to issue notes as a loan that borrowers paid back over time, with interest. Provided borrowers paid back their loans on time and only a small proportion of owners wanted their gold back at any given time, all was well, and goldsmiths transformed into bankers. But this didn’t always work out. An economic shock might see everyone wanting their gold back, and if the bank couldn’t deliver the full amount that was demanded, it went broke. To help prevent this, many countries created central banks, with some governments even acting as lender-of-last-resort. While government control and the rules around banking have evolved over time, private banks are still the source of most currency created today. When things get real In economically stable times it’s easy to think of currency and real money as the same thing. However, a couple of examples reveal the difference between the two. One is when a government starts printing money to pay for its programs. Inflation usually results, and the value of currency can plummet. In the case of hyperinflation, paper money and bank deposits can quickly become worthless as happened in Germany in the 1920s. The difference between currency and real money and the issue of intrinsic value has implications for other investments. If you would like to learn more, talk to us. We’re here to help.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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