Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: July – September 2020

Quarterly Economic Update: July – September 2020

Updated on Finance, Investing

COVID-19 remained the big story of the last quarter. Tragically, by the end of September the pandemic had caused over one million deaths. That was up by 500,000 since the end of the previous quarter, and many countries were experiencing devastating ‘second waves’. While most of Australia managed to keep case numbers of coronavirus at very low levels, Victoria provided a case study in the severe human and economic impacts of having the virus escape control. Now it is epidemiologists, rather than economists, that we look to for advice on how to transition to a post-pandemic world. Unemployment ups and downs The official unemployment rate from the Australian Bureau of Statistics was 7.5% in July, but showed a welcome drop to 6.8% in August. Meanwhile, NSW claimed that 70% of jobs initially lost in the pandemic had been restored. However, when JobKeeper, people working zero hours but classified as employed, and a big jump in gig workers are taken into account, the real unemployment rate is much higher. Roy Morgan estimated that the actual unemployment rate is closer to 13.8% and the combined unemployment and under-employment rate is 22.8%. Still, both these figures were down from their peak in late March. Property problems The major property markets of Sydney and Melbourne declined for the fourth month in a row, with the ABS reporting that in the June quarter these major city housing markets dropped by 2.6 and 2.8% respectively. And the outlook for housing construction is none too rosy. Australia relies on immigration to generate the population growth that stimulates construction and supports the prices of existing dwellings. With our borders effectively closed that population growth will either be delayed or will fail to materialise. Rental income is also expected to decline, particularly in markets with a high proportion of overseas students who are unable to return to Australia. The markets After a bit of a rally through July and August the local share market ran out of steam, with the S&P 500 index finishing the quarter down by 1.4%. International markets continued to produce some excitement. Despite weakening a little towards the end of the quarter the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 7.2%. Much of this was attributable to the US market with the S&P500 up 7.6% and the NASDAQ up 10.2%. The Aussie dollar also weakened slightly towards the end of the quarter, finishing flat against the Euro and British Pound, up 2% against the Yen, and up 3.8% (from the high 60s to low 70s) against the US Dollar. The outlook If you thought that interest rates couldn’t go any lower, think again. The RBA has flagged the possibility of a further cut in the cash rate with commentators predicting a cut of 15 basis points to take the rate to just 0.1%. Internationally, the US presidential election could see an increase in market volatility with the final outcome anything but certain. For further information on current market conditions, contact us.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Positioning your portfolio in turbulent times

Positioning your portfolio in turbulent times

Updated on Finance, Investing, Superannuation

As any experienced investor knows, all investment markets have their ups and downs. Regardless of investor experience, turbulent times are a cause of anxiety, and that can lead to poor decision-making. So, if turbulent markets are inevitable, even if their timing is not predictable, how should portfolios be positioned in anticipation of and in response to market volatility? What’s your objective? First up, it’s important to go back to your investment objective. Is it to grow wealth over the medium to long term? Or are you more concerned with preserving capital? Your objective also needs to take account of your risk profile. With your risk tolerance and objectives clarified, it’s time to get to grips with asset allocation. This is the process of deciding what proportion of your portfolio will be allocated to each of the major asset classes: cash, fixed interest, property and shares. Asset allocation is the engine room of your portfolio. The amount that you apportion to the major asset classes has the biggest effect on your portfolio performance. It has a greater bearing on your returns than individual asset selection. Asset allocation is also your key risk management tool, the more you allocate to shares and property the greater the volatility, and therefore the risk. However, in this context, risk isn’t always a bad thing. A higher risk portfolio may at times fall more in value than a lower risks portfolio, but over the long term it is also more likely to generate higher returns. Oops, too late Unfortunately, the motivation to position a portfolio for turbulent times is often a sudden upset in investment markets. But this doesn’t mean it’s too late to do anything. If your investment objectives and risk tolerance haven’t changed, rebalancing your portfolio (i.e. bringing the asset allocation back to its ideal position) may help to position it for the next upswing in investment markets. Waiting out the storms While positioning can help with portfolio risk management, many investors opt to wait out any storms. Why? Because for all the ups and downs, bull markets and bear markets, bubbles and crashes, major share markets have delivered solid long-term growth. In fact, it has been claimed that investors have lost more money trying to anticipate corrections, than they would have lost in riding out actual corrections. A detached view Concerned about the financial outlook and your portfolio’s current position? We can provide an impartial assessment of your portfolio, help you identify your objectives and your risk tolerance, and recommend investments to help you weather the turbulent times. Talk to us today to get started.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

Updated on COVID-19, Finance, Investing

There isn’t a single person in the world who hasn’t been impacted by COVID-19. As new case numbers start to slow in Australia, so too is our economy. This time presents new challenges as everyone gets used to a “new normal” and figures out the best way to weather the coming months. This article provides an overview of different measures the Federal Government has announced to support individuals and businesses, current market performance and what you should be thinking about when it comes to your finances and continuing to build long-term wealth. Government support for individuals and businessesThe Federal Government has announced two economic stimulus packages and the JobKeeper Payment to support individuals and businesses. An overview of the Federal Government’s measures announced to date is detailed below. Support for individualsThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help individuals. Eligibility to access these measures is determined on criteria such as your employment status or loss of income due to COVID-19. Some of the key measures include: two $750 payments to social security, veteran and other income support recipients (first payment from 31 March 2020 and the second payment from 13 July 2020); access to the JobKeeper Payment from your employer (if eligible) equal to $1,500 per fortnight; a time-limited supplementary payment for new and existing concession recipients of the JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance, Parenting Payment, and Farm Household Allowance equal to $550 per fortnight; early release of superannuation funds (see overview below); and temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown rates (see overview below). Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support individuals are available on the Treasury website. Early release of superannuationEligible people will be able to access up to $10,000 of their superannuation in the 2019-20 financial year and a further $10,000 in the 2020-21 financial year. To access your super early, you need to meet ONE of the following five criteria: You are unemployed You are eligible for the JobSeeker payment, Youth Allowance for jobseekers, Parenting Payment special benefit or the Farm Household Allowance You were made redundant on or after 1 January 2020 Your working hours have reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 You are a sole trader, and your business activity was suspended, or your turnover has reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 If you are considering early release of your superannuation, you need to consider what the potential long-term impacts may be to the growth of your super fund and retirement income. While $20,000 may not seem like a lot of money now, it could have significant compounding value if left in your fund. Understandably, people may not have any other choice to support themselves financially. Make sure you speak to a financial professional to understand your risks and if this is a suitable option for you. If you are eligible, you can apply for early release of your superannuation directly with the ATO through the myGov website. Temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown ratesThe temporary reduction in the minimum drawdown requirements for account-based pensions has been designed to assist retirees who do not wish to sell their investment assets, while the value of those assets is reduced. The minimum drawdown rates have been temporarily halved. Support for businessesThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help businesses facing financial difficulty. Eligibility to access these measures depends on factors such as your turnover and how much your business’s revenue has decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these measures include: increasing the instant asset write-off threshold for depreciating assets from $30,000 to $150,000; allowing businesses with turnover below $500 million to deduct 50 per cent of eligible assets until 30 June 2021; PAYG withholding support, providing up to $100,000 in cash payments which allows businesses to receive payments equal to 100 per cent of salary and wages withheld from 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2020; and temporary measures to reduce the potential actions that could cause business insolvency. Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support businesses and eligibility criteria are available on the Treasury website. How the banks are approaching home loansBanks have announced that homeowners experiencing financial difficulty can pause their mortgage repayments for between three and six months. It’s important to remember that, in most cases, interest will still be capitalised and added to your outstanding loan balance. When payments restart, your lender may require increased repayments, or the term of your loan may be increased. These are important factors you need to discuss with your lender. What should you focus on when it comes to personal finance?While it can be tempting to sell all your investments now as the market declines, this locks in your losses and puts your wealth in a weak position. If you haven’t already defensively positioned your investments, speak with a financial adviser about how to best adjust your investing over the coming months. You should also consider how to maximise your returns as the market recovers. Investing and building wealth is a long-term game. As such, you should be investing with a long-term time horizon in mind. What should I do next?During this time, you may face some challenges with your finances. Your ability, however, to understand the options available to you and what the current period means on a long-term basis is key to getting through this challenging time productively. Further, making well thought out decisions now will give you the strong foundations you need in your health and wealth as the world recovers and embarks on a new period of growth. Before you make any big changes to your financial situation, speak to us to obtain personalised advice for your unique situation.   This is general information only

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