financial market Archives

Economic Update: October-December 2020

27 January, 202117 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

COVID-19 update Finally, some good news on the COVID-19 front: several vaccines have been rolled out in a number of countries. While a huge step forward in bringing the pandemic under control, it comes at a time when, globally, more people are being infected with the coronavirus, and more people are dying from it than at any previous point in the pandemic. There is a long way to go before victory can be declared. Meanwhile, Victoria squashed its second wave of COVID-19 infections, sparking a bounce in its economy as it enjoyed an extended period of no community spread of coronavirus. Unfortunately, the virus found a way back into both Victoria and NSW, kicking off fresh border closures and holiday chaos. The local view As was widely anticipated, the RBA cut the cash rate target by 0.15% to 0.1% in November. While welcomed by borrowers the cut put additional pressure on net savers by making it even harder to find low risk income yielding investments. Some are turning to peer-to-peer lending platforms, or even high yielding shares, which may partly explain the strong recent performance of the ASX. The official unemployment rate in November was 6.8%, the same as in August. However, using a different methodology, Roy Morgan calculated unemployment to be 11.9% in November, with a further 9.1% under-employed. While hardly cause for celebration, this was the first time since the pandemic began that both figures showed a month-on-month drop. The world stage The US election delivered a change of president, with markets responding positively as the result became clear. As the year came to a close, a sigh of relief was heard from millions as the US Congress approved a coronavirus relief package worth $US892 billion ($1.18 trillion). The package includes $US600 payments to most Americans. After years of negotiation and with just days to spare, the UK and EU managed to agree on a BREXIT trade deal. While it will keep the goods flowing between the UK and Europe, the agreement doesn’t cover the huge services sector. The markets It was a good quarter on the markets with the main global and US indices zooming past pre-COVID-19 levels. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 13.4%. The Australian market followed suit, with the S&P/ASX200 rising 13.3%. However, the Aussie market has yet to return to its February high. In the US the S&P500 rose 11% and tech stocks continued to attract buyers with the NASDAQ up 15.5%. The A$ gained strength rising 8.2% against the greenback. While partly due to a weakening of the US$, the A$ was also up 2% against the British Pound, 3.4% against the Euro and 5.6% against the Yen. The outlook Beyond direct health effects much of COVID-19’s economic impacts have been due to fear. It will take many months, but as vaccines are rolled out, and provided they bring the pandemic under control, much of that fear will dissipate. As it does economic activity should pick up strongly. Less likely to see any positive developments in the immediate future is the tense relationship between Australia and China. Australian coal miners, winemakers and barley growers will continue to bear the brunt of the dispute. Fortunately, China is still highly dependent on Australian iron ore, the price of which has soared by 78% since the start of the year. For current market conditions and further economic analysis, contact our financial advisers. We’re here to help! The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Market crashes: The good, the bad and the ugly

13 January, 202117 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Economy, Investing

Just as night follows day, it seems part of the regular cycle of the world’s share markets that market crashes and falling prices follow good times and rising prices. The impact of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic has been typical of such downturns, prompting a 35 per cent sell off in world share markets and a dramatic fall in economic activity. For many, it has prompted memories of other equally, and sometimes more devastating, downturns in the world’s share markets. The most famous was “Black Thursday” in 1929, which led to an 80 per cent collapse in share prices and sparked the Great Depression, lasting for more than 10 years. What caused it? The wild excesses of the roaring twenties when consumer confidence was at a record high and the introduction of margin loans, where people could borrow up to 80 per cent of the value of shares. This created a classic investment bubble, where optimism overwhelmed caution, and people started buying shares with the mistaken belief they would always increase in value. A drop in agricultural production due to droughts and a fall in economic production caused a sudden reversal in sentiment. A similar situation occurred 60 years later in 1987 where panic selling on Black Monday wiped approximately 30 per cent from the value of the key US market index, the Dow Jones – its biggest one-day fall. It put an end to the ‘Greed is Good’ mentality of the eighties and prompted a review of the relatively new, computerised share trading systems. Yet it seems investor’s memories are short. Not long after this, markets got caught up with a new investment bubble prompted by the development and growth of the Internet. Companies raced to find their place online, and suddenly, all Internet companies were considered a sure bet. This speculative buying ran out of steam when the Dot Com Bubble finally burst in 2000, wiping 45 per cent off the value of shares. Whilst sharing commonalities with previous crashes, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, was also in many ways unique. It was the direct result of dodgy lending practices in the US housing market, which created a toxic class of home loans, commonly referred to as sub-prime loans. Typically, these lenders ignored the individual’s ability to repay the loans and instead focused on the belief property prices would continue to rise, and there would always be people prepared to rent these properties. It created a typical investment bubble in the US housing market. Eventually, people found they could not meet their repayments, nor could they sell the properties held as securities. Causing enormous problems within the US banking system and the collapse of several international banks. The lesson to be learnt from all these devastating crashes is that while no two were the same, they were all similar in nature. All were created by exaggerated investor beliefs that prices would never fall. Therefore, it is essential to think carefully before investing, ensuring each investment is made with a long-term mindset, and that sudden market corrections do not lead to panic selling. As history has shown, market downturns follow upturns, but as long as the investment is fundamentally sound, it will fully recover any lost value. Contact us today for sound investment and financial advice to withstand market volatility. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.