Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

As geo-political tensions tighten in Ukraine, economies around the world are reeling from mounting energy prices, soaring costs of living and in a desperate attempt to bring down inflation, higher interest rates.  The US economy appears certain to fall into recession. Markets have suddenly become volatile as shares are sold in preference to holding funds in defensive assets such as cash. This in turn is reaping havoc on world currency markets. Funds are flooding into US dollar denominated investments and in doing so, are sending the value of the greenback sky high against other currencies.  Speculation is mounting that the British pound may fall to historic lows in coming months and may even reach parity with the US dollar, driven by the newly elected Prime Minister Liz Truss, implementing a big borrowing, low taxing budget. This controversial attempt to boost the British economy comes at a time when central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, are lifting interest rates in order to reduce economic activity and so, dramatically slow the rate of inflation.  The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is now forecasting economic growth will slow from 2.8 to 2.2 per cent during the next twelve months as the United States, China and Europe all cut back on economic activity.  While Australia is not spared from this global slowdown, with the OECD forecasting domestic growth will tumble from 2.5 to 2 per cent during the coming year, it should survive this turbulent period better than most. Much will depend on this month’s Federal Budget. The first by the newly elected Albanese Government, it will tread a line between its reform agenda including much talk about tax cuts and trying to slow the economy and so reduce inflation.  Although the employment rate across the nation remains high, spiralling prices for basic foodstuffs and other essentials is putting enormous pressure on the Government to provide relief to those struggling to get by. In the meantime, petrol prices are set to bounce higher as the Federal Government restores the fuel excise tax, adding 23 cents a litre to both petrol and diesel sold in Australia.  In addition, the Reserve Bank has made it clear it will continue to lift the domestic cash rate and with it most other local interest rates, until it has clawed back the rate of inflation from an expected high of 7 per cent, to less than 3 per cent.  Higher interest rates are already impacting homebuyers. Five rate rises since May, mean a couple earning $92,000 each, can now borrow $264,000 less than they could in April according to analysis by the research house, Canstar. So even with a 20 per cent deposit, a couple’s maximum budget has dropped from more than $1.63 million to $1.37 million and this in turn is being reflected by prices in the property market. As buyer’s budgets have fallen, so too have property prices. CoreLogic Home Value Index shows house prices in Sydney have dropped by 7.6 per cent this year while Melbourne prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent.  With the Reserve Bank determined to force even higher interest rates on the economy in order to defeat inflation, there is no end in sight to higher interest rates and further property price falls.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

What is money… really?

What is money… really?

That $50 note in your pocket. What’s it worth? “$50,” you say, probably thinking it’s a dumb question. But is it really? Or a sheet of plastic and a bit of ink that likely cost the note printer less than a cent? Your $50 note only has value because the government declares that it does. This lack of intrinsic value means your $50 note, and the balances of bank accounts that represent most money in circulation, might better be described as currency rather than ‘real money’. Over the past few thousand years all sorts of items have been used as currency, from shells and cocoa beans to soap and cigarettes. But to be considered real money, several key criteria need to be met. The most important are that it is: Recognised as a medium of exchange and accepted by most people within an economy. Durable. Portable, having a high value relative to its weight and size. Divisible into smaller amounts. Resistant to counterfeiting. A store of value over long timeframes. Of intrinsic value, i.e. not reliant on anything else for its value. Throughout history gold and silver have come closest to meeting these and other criteria, though nowadays you’ll have difficulty in paying for your groceries with gold Krugerrands. Also, you’ll want to keep your gold and silver in a safe place, and it was people seeking to do just that which gave rise to paper money and our current system of bank-created money. What started out as a good idea… Centuries ago goldsmiths would take in gold and silver for safekeeping and issue the owners receipts, or notes, confirming the amount of gold held. The depositors soon discovered that these notes could be used for payment in place of the physical gold, but the goldsmiths noticed something else. It was rare for anyone to redeem all their notes at once. They saw the opportunity to issue notes as a loan that borrowers paid back over time, with interest. Provided borrowers paid back their loans on time and only a small proportion of owners wanted their gold back at any given time, all was well, and goldsmiths transformed into bankers. But this didn’t always work out. An economic shock might see everyone wanting their gold back, and if the bank couldn’t deliver the full amount that was demanded, it went broke. To help prevent this, many countries created central banks, with some governments even acting as lender-of-last-resort. While government control and the rules around banking have evolved over time, private banks are still the source of most currency created today. When things get real In economically stable times it’s easy to think of currency and real money as the same thing. However, a couple of examples reveal the difference between the two. One is when a government starts printing money to pay for its programs. Inflation usually results, and the value of currency can plummet. In the case of hyperinflation, paper money and bank deposits can quickly become worthless as happened in Germany in the 1920s. The difference between currency and real money and the issue of intrinsic value has implications for other investments. If you would like to learn more, talk to us. We’re here to help.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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