Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

Global growth is forecast to slow and remain below its historical average in 2024, reflective of tighter monetary policy in advanced economies, as well as a soft outlook for China. Australians can expect higher prices, higher interest rates and higher population growth, with economic growth and unemployment decreasing. Inflation continues to bite With a new Governor at the helm of the RBA, and inflation tracking down since its peak in the December quarter 2022, public sentiment hoped that rate rises would be paused. However, the RBA delivered another rate hike at the November 2023 meeting, bringing the official interest rate to 4.35% – the highest level since 2011. It is likely that an increase in the monthly CPI indicator was a key trigger for the RBA to raise rates, as the monthly indicator rose to 5.2 per cent in August, and then rose again to 5.6 per cent in the September data. However, the next monthly data point, for October (which came out after the November rate rise) had inflation decreasing to 4.9 per cent. Services inflation remains high and was the primary driver of stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in the September quarter. Interest rates – will they or won’t they? The RBA continues to be cautious about the inflation outlook for Australia for several reasons: high and sticky inflation in the services market, house prices recovering sooner than anticipated, a tight labour market and increasing population growth due to migration. A survey of 40 economists by the Australian Financial Review shows that the median forecast is that the RBA will start cutting rates in September 2024, whilst the bond market is projecting an easing of rates by mid-2024. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024, reduced from 11, beginning in February – following an independent review ordered by the Treasury. Coupled with the RBA governor’s commitment to return inflation to the target range of 2-3%, more rate hikes may be on the cards. Holiday spending to remain flat A survey by Roy Morgan forecast shoppers to spend $66.8 billion during the pre-Christmas sales period, only up 0.1% from the same period in 2022, likely as a result of cost of living impacts. Sales spending for the Boxing Day period to December 31 was expected to be about $9 billion, including $3 billion on Boxing Day itself, as retailers prepared larger discounts than usual after a slow year. Hot Property House and unit prices grew steadily in 2023, with a national annual growth rate of 5.42% (6.54% in capital cities). The main drivers include the highest net overseas migration levels ever recorded, few vacant properties and stronger demand for established homes due to the construction industry facing capacity and cost issues. This growth forecast is expected to continue as most experts believe demand for housing will continue to outstrip supply. However, Australia’s cost of living increases and interest rate uncertainty will keep biting—leading to weaker price growth than previous years. The rental market remains in a critical shortage of available dwellings according to SQM Research. Due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance, the market is expecting capital city rental increases of 7-10% for 2024, on top of an average 10% market increase in 2023. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

The impact of natural disaster on property values and insurance

The impact of natural disaster on property values and insurance

Australia’s vast expanses and varied climates make us prone to natural disasters. In recent years alone, we’ve experienced the devastating impacts of bushfires in the southern parts of the country, flooding along the Eastern Coast, as well as significant storm events and cyclones. As you can imagine, the aftermath of a natural disaster typically involves a lot of clean-up and rebuilding for those affected. However, there are also a number of flow-on effects from these events for those not directly affected that are of particular importance to homeowners and first home buyers. Impact on Home Values A natural disaster can drastically reduce the market value of affected properties, as property buyers become deterred by the high risk factor associated with the property or area. This can also make it difficult for owners to sell their homes or vacant land, as the buyer pool willing to take on that risk reduces. In some cases, properties in high-risk areas may become uninsurable, which can further impact value, sometimes causing these properties to become unsellable as purchasers are deterred by the inability to insure the property. Impact on Insurance Following a natural disaster, insurance companies are inundated with claims for damages, which can take months, or even years, to process. Property owners in affected areas may face increased premiums, regardless of whether or not the event directly impacted them, due to insurance companies requiring their underwriters to assess potential future risks to ensure a balanced risk portfolio across their entire insurance pool. For example, in its ‘Report on Home and Contents Insurance Prices in North Queensland’, the AGA reported that North Queensland’s home and contents insurance premium rates had increased by around 80 per cent over the period of its investigation. Throughout that time, North Queensland experienced Cyclone Larry, Cyclone Yasi, and the Mackay Storms. By comparison, premium rates across Australia increased by around 25 per cent for the same period. Underinsurance or uninsurance is often the outcome, with homeowners either unable to afford the cover or justify the cost, presenting a substantial financial risk to homeowners if a natural disaster occurs. Tips for Property Buyers It is crucial to conduct thorough research, especially when considering buying a property in an area prone to disasters. Know the Property History Research the history of the property, including the surrounding area, to understand the risk for natural disasters: Research historical records of property damage in the area. Check with the local council for any risks in the area and any tools they might offer. Be familiar with the environmental factors that create risk for the area. Read the Fine Print Not all insurance policies are created equal, so it’s essential to understand the terms and policy definitions of any insurance contracts, particularly for disaster prone areas: Discuss the appropriate levels of insurance coverage with an insurance agent, Research insurance providers and consider their options. Also, by researching insurance coverage and obtaining quotes during your property due diligence, you can factor the actual cost into your budget to ensure you can afford cover and not be forced into uninsurance or underinsurance. Risk Mitigation & Disaster Management If you’re looking to purchase a property in a high risk area, be aware of risk mitigation strategies to assist with reducing risk. Understanding your property’s building materials and construction methods may help to protect your property. Understanding risk mitigation activities you could take to reduce your exposure. For example, in bushfire prone areas, being aware of hazard reduction activities such as fuel-reduction burning, removal of vegetation and maintaining fire lines. Without appropriate insurance cover or a streamlined disaster management plan, the financial implications of natural disasters can have dire consequences. If you’d like further advice in relation to ensuring you are adequately protected, or if you require assistance with purchasing a home, please reach out to discuss how we might be able to assist. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: July-September 2021

Economic Update: July-September 2021

COVID here to stay The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months. Time to chill You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates. Pop goes iron ore Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively. Hot topic In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers. The numbers Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started. The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies. In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates. On the radar Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers. Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

The global COVID-19 jab-fest gathered pace with some countries, including Israel and the United Kingdom, achieving high rates of immunisation. However, the rollout has had some issues. Rare side effects linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine saw a number of countries suspend its use for a period of time, and Australia was slow off the mark with its immunisation rollout. The longer it takes to vaccinate the world, the slower the economic recovery. Hot property Pushing COVID-19 off the front pages was the big jump in residential property prices. Nationally, CoreLogic’s home value index jumped 5.8% for the quarter. Sydney led the jump with a 6.7% lift. In March alone the index rose 2.8%, the biggest rise in 32 years. Most of the action was on the first home and owner-occupiers front, though investor purchases were also up. The main fuel being added to the property price fire is ongoing low interest rates. With the RBA indicating rates will most likely remain low for years, that could continue to inflate property values and see more people priced out of the market. Helping to fuel the market was good employment numbers. Seasonally adjusted, the ABS reported an unemployment rate of 5.8% in February, down from 6.3% in January. However, this counts people on JobKeeper as employed. Taking this into account, Roy Morgan put unemployment at 13.2% in February, with 21% of the workforce either unemployed or under-employed. Blocked artery In late March the container ship Ever Given provided a graphic example of how small things can have a huge impact. Strong wind gusts saw the giant ship wedge itself bank to bank across the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main shipping arteries. Suddenly 30% of world container shipping ground to a halt. Fortunately, the ship was freed after a few days, and the backlog of ships was cleared a few days after that, but it was a stark reminder of how vulnerable large parts of the economy are. Key numbers The pace of recovery in the local and international share markets slowed during the quarter as prices crept close to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The S&P/ASX200 rose 3.1%, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 4.2%. Tech shares ran out of puff with the NASDAQ only gaining 1.4%, while the S&P500 surged late in the quarter to gain 6.1%. The outlook Many countries are experiencing third and fourth waves of COVID-19, and it’s a fair bet that the virus will continue to dictate the way we live for some time to come. But it’s not the only game in town. US President Joe Biden has taken climate change off the back burner and moved it front and centre. That means our government and businesses will need to pay it a lot more attention too. Expect carbon tariffs to become a hot topic. On the local front, with interest rates all but ruled out as a tool for managing the residential property boom, talk is turning to the use of regulatory methods to dampen demand. These could involve requiring bigger deposits or limiting the rate of credit growth. And with JobKeeper now wound up employment figures will come under close scrutiny. Expect to see a jump in unemployment this current quarter.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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